Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Italy and Spain missed their 2012 deficit targets by a small margin and timelier data point to further likely slippage in the initial stages of this year. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget measures amount to small beer for consumers While yesterday’s Budget resulted in a net giveaway to consumers, it did little to reduce the blow to household incomes which will be inflicted by further waves of austerity in the coming years. 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s retail sales figures provided some positive news after the gloom of yesterday’s Budget. Meanwhile, the latest public finance figures gave some support to the OBR’s judgement that public... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2013: Steady as she goes – aground As expected, the backdrop to this Budget was yet another downward revision to the OBR’s growth forecasts. This downgrade strikes us as fully justified. Indeed, we are even more pessimistic than the... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Cyprus? The Cypriot Parliament’s overwhelming rejection of the proposed levy on bank deposits adds to the uncertainty surrounding the future of Cyprus and increases the risk of the country eventually exiting... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Cypriot bail-out deal mean for Russia? Russia’s financial markets have taken fright this morning following the announcement of details of the Cypriot bail-out, which looks set to hit Russian deposits there hard. But despite the fact that... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the Cyprus crisis means for the rest of the world A further escalation of the crisis in tiny Cyprus may have global implications well beyond the immediate market reactions today. It could influence the course of fiscal policy in the UK and monetary... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Cyprus really a special case? The plan to impose losses on Cypriot bank depositors has potentially serious implications for financial stability in the euro-zone as a whole. Cyprus is arguably a special case, but given remaining... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Poor data piles further Budget pressure on Chancellor With the news last week of falls in industrial and construction output, talk of a “triple-dip” recession is back in the headlines. It’s still early days, but even with some signs that March will turn... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany likely to prevail in austerity debate Last week brought mixed news in the debate on growth versus austerity. On the one hand, EU leaders discussed and (to some extent) advocated growth policies at an EU summit. What’s more, the European... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian deadlock set to continue The opening of Parliament on Friday will do little to lift the political uncertainty in Italy. Accordingly, a prolonged period of policy deadlock looks likely to fuel concerns over the outlook for... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What’s left in the ECB toolbox for SMEs? Reviving lending to small and medium-sized enterprises is crucial for the euro-zone’s prospects given the importance of these firms to the region, particularly in the periphery. Indeed, ECB President... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget 2013 – Can the Chancellor kick-start homebuilding? Further measures to boost homebuilding will reportedly form part of next week’s Budget. But past attempts have had little success. So what more could the Chancellor do, and with what effect? 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is austerity working after all? Despite concerns that austerity is not working in the euro-zone, most of the region’s peripheral economies managed to reduce their budget deficits in 2012. But fiscal progress has been slower than... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower inflation may further delay return to fiscal balance Concerns about when governments will meet their budget deficit elimination goals have mostly centred on rosy consensus real GDP growth forecasts. But lower inflation could also result in even longer... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy really on autopilot? We are not fully convinced by the argument espoused by Mario Draghi that Italian fiscal policy is on “automatic pilot” and that the budget deficit will narrow regardless of who eventually takes power... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
