Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out appears safe...for now We doubt that the recent bout of political uncertainty, coupled with concerns over the Government’s ability to meet the privatisation targets set by the Troika, poses a serious near-term threat to... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Tentative rise in tax revenues another sign of recovery A tentative pick-up in tax receipts has lent some support to the growing signs of economic recovery. While the improvement is so far modest, tax revenues tend to lag changes in economic activity, so... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The external adjustment has only just begun Most peripheral euro-zone economies have made impressive progress in narrowing their current account deficits. But so far this is only a correction in flows; theses economies have made little or no... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the Troika learning from its mistakes? While the IMF conceded last week that mistakes were made in Greece’s 2010 bail-out programme, it suggested that earlier debt restructuring was the way forward rather than bigger bail-outs. Meanwhile... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery looking more like the real thing The positive run of economic news continued last week. Meanwhile, the Labour party’s shift in strategy underlines that fiscal consolidation will remain a defining feature beyond the election. 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's government finances need to be brought under control Ongoing political uncertainty has led to a sharp deterioration in the Egyptian government’s finances. The measures required to put them on a more sustainable footing are politically sensitive. But... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the UK turning Japanese? The UK economy is at risk of following a path that is, if anything, worse than the ‘lost decades’ Japan experienced from the early 1990s. While the UK possesses some advantages Japan lacked, in some... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax hikes essential to maintain credibility Although barely on the radar of most investors just yet, the Abe government’s decision on whether to press ahead with the planned fiscal tightening in 2014 and beyond may well be the most important... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing EM government debt dynamics High public debt and large budget deficits mean that the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Hungary need to tighten fiscal policy. Moreover, despite appearing healthy, the public finances of some... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain's political upheaval to continue to drag on growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Is the worst now over for Dubai? Optimism has returned to Dubai’s economy, but its debt problems aren’t fully resolved. Ultimately, we think oil-rich Abu Dhabi will step in to provide emergency financing if needed. But even so, the... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs of new momentum in economic policy reform Six months after China's leadership transition there are encouraging signs that policymakers are embracing the need for significant economic policy reform. In this China Watch we review the progress... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Sweden & Norway lose their shine? Over the past five years, Sweden and Norway have performed remarkably well by the standards of the developed world, but their recoveries may be starting to run out of steam. Nonetheless, both... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
