Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for fiscal reform in Mexico The package of tax reforms announced over the weekend by the Mexican government is the most significant in recent history, but will still leave the authorities highly reliant on oil as a source of... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Consumption tax – not Olympics – key to Nikkei outlook The headlines in Japan today have been dominated by the successful Olympics bid, but there will be many decisions with much greater economic and market significance to be taken before 2020 – not least... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Subsidy reform key to sustaining fiscal discipline The widening of fiscal deficits in several economies in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years has increased the importance of subsidy reform. The good news is that policymakers are starting to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Morocco and Tunisia to remain sluggish Signs of recovery in the euro-zone are encouraging for Morocco and Tunisia. But political problems and large twin fiscal and current account deficits will continue to cloud the economic outlook. 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan reiterates support for consumption tax hikes Governor Kuroda today underlined the Bank of Japan’s view – already reflected in its economic forecasts – that the planned consumption tax hikes will neither derail the recovery nor prevent inflation... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumers leading moderate recovery The euro-zone exited its record-long recession in Q2 and recent business surveys suggest that the economy should expand again in the third quarter. An increase in household spending, the first in... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to cut rates before the end of the year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold today, as expected. However, we still expect further loosening before the end of the year, and think that rates will remain very low in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Happy Birthday OMTs – it could be downhill from here The ECB’s OMT programme has had a successful first year. But there are still reasons to doubt that it has solved the euro-zone crisis and the programme’s effects could fade in the coming months. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug 13.) The smaller peripheral euro-zone economies continue to make solid inroads into their budget deficits. But the Italian and Spanish deficits have fallen only modestly. 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany to fund more than a third Greek bail-out? German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble’s acknowledgement last week that Greece needs more aid seemed like a statement of the obvious. Encouragingly, however the size of any new bail-out will be... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s debt dynamics still look ugly Despite the recent upward revision to our forecast for Italian GDP growth, we still think that the Government’s budget deficit and debt forecasts are too sanguine. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jul 13.) Despite signs of life in the economy, July’s public finances data suggest that these are being slow to support the fiscal figures. Admittedly, the impact of the economic recovery on the public purse... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Return to growth won’t eliminate euro-zone default risks The recent return of economic growth in the euro-zone does not eradicate the risk that some of the peripheral economies will undertake some form of sovereign default. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Threat from twin deficits begins to recede The incoming news over the past couple of weeks suggests that the so-called twin deficits – the current account and Federal budget – are both improving, in the case of the Federal budget quite... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Options for the consumption tax Japan’s government could still decide to delay the consumption tax hike scheduled for April 2014. The damage to credibility may be lessened if the economy is clearly too weak and a sensible... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Case for corporate tax cuts appears irresistible Even without the need to mitigate the impact of the planned doubling of the consumption tax, the arguments for lowering Japan’s relatively high corporate tax rates would be very strong. But with a... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
