UK Economics Weekly Coalition still struggling to take credit for recovery This week’s second estimate of GDP looks set to confirm that the UK economy was the fastest growing G7 economy in the third quarter. But the Government’s shortfall in the opinion polls suggests that... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM exporters benefit from Chinese rebound EM exporters appear to have benefited from the recent investment-led rebound in China. But with China's infrastructure spending now easing again and policymakers determined to rein in credit growth... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Oct.) Although October’s public finance figures were a little disappointing, borrowing this year still looks set to come in substantially below the OBR’s March forecast. While the Chancellor is likely to... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Croatia’s fiscal woes a result of weak growth In spite of mounting speculation that Croatia’s debt burden will force the authorities to turn to the IMF for help, we think that the country might still be able to avoid a bail-out. Even so, these... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How serious is the government about austerity? The government has pledged to halve its primary deficit by 2015. However, the ongoing surge in public spending casts severe doubt on policymakers' commitment to fiscal austerity despite the planned... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Subsidy cuts – lessons from Jordan The swingeing fuel subsidy cuts imposed by Jordan's government a year ago have, so far at least, made few inroads in narrowing the country's fiscal deficit. Measures to replace subsidies have tended... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government turning more cautious on economy After enjoying a stronger than expected 2012-13 fiscal year, the Federal government is taking a cautious approach and sticking with its previous timetable to eliminate the budget deficit by 2015. With... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Downgrade highlights France's slow fiscal progress The downgrade of France’s sovereign credit rating last week highlighted the country’s fiscal problems. Although a French debt crisis is still a fairly distant prospect, France’s weak fiscal position... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain's fiscal prospects look brighter than Italy's Spain still faces major economic challenges, but we think that prospects there are brighter than in Italy where the medium-term outlook for the public finances remains pretty dire. Accordingly, we... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery strengthens and broadens The economic recovery still seems to be gathering speed. The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in the third quarter was the strongest expansion seen since Q2 2010. And whereas a year or so ago, the recovery... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is inflation the only answer for Japan? The public debt problem in Japan has of course been brewing for many years without boiling over into a full-blown crisis. However, adverse demographics could soon cause the government’s finances to... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator points to decent growth for Argentina’s economy in Q3. However, this is partly the result of a further loosening of the public purse strings in the run-up to last... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What can we expect from the Third Plenum? Expectations that detailed new policies will be unveiled at the upcoming Third Plenum are likely to be disappointed. But the key gauge of success should instead be whether the leadership presents a... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) On balance, the smaller peripheral economies in the euro-zone are still making inroads into their budget deficits, but there are some signs that Italy and Spain are faring a bit less well. 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
