Europe Economics Update Markets' faith in Portugal seems misplaced Portugal’s clean exit from its bail-out at the weekend was soured by the news that the economy contracted in the first quarter. The GDP figures are not as worrying as they seem, but the Portuguese... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from post-tax hike data If Japan’s past experience is any guide, the next few weeks will deliver a run of downbeat data reflecting a plunge in domestic demand after the consumption tax hike. In fact, many indicators have... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dismal Q1 suggests Finland will stagnate at best in 2014 The 0.4% fall in Finland’s trend output indicator over Q1 is a clear indication that the country is struggling to exit recession. We expect the Finnish economy to stagnate this year, undermining... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances still dire, but default risk seems limited Egypt has one of the worst fiscal positions in the world, but the risk of default is lower than some seem to think. Funding from the Gulf, coupled with a domestic banking sector willing to purchase... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tight fiscal policy another reason to expect Australian slowdown Australia's budget included a range of measures to rein in the fiscal deficit. The shift to tighter fiscal policy comes at a time when the economy is growing below trend and is facing a sharp fall in... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will corporate tax cuts boost investment? The planned shift from corporate to consumption taxes should boost overall economic growth in coming years. However, the benefits from corporate tax cuts alone may be smaller than hoped for, as many... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery robust but housing market concerns build The last month’s data has provided further evidence that the UK economy is enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of solid, but not excessive, growth and low inflation. The latest PMI surveys suggest that... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update El Niño-related food inflation worries in India premature India's high dependence on rainfall for crop production makes it particularly vulnerable to the dry El Niño weather conditions that many weather forecasters expect this year. Concerns over the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack It's all about the consumption tax For now, Japan's economy is following the script of the 1997 consumption tax hike. Consumer spending surged in a last-minute shopping spree before the tax was raised, and inflation soared in the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus unlikely to achieve a 'clean exit' The improvement in investor sentiment towards the euro-zone has allowed even beleaguered Cyprus to tap the markets for funding. But the nation remains a long way from replicating Ireland’s ‘clean exit... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The unhelpful divergence between France and Germany Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone recovery gained more traction at the start of Q2. But there remains a worrying divergence between France and Germany which risks holding back the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Apr.) & Public Finances (Mar.) The minutes of April’s MPC meeting suggested that the first rise in official interest rates remains some way off. Meanwhile, March’s public finances brought some fairly positive news on the speed of... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal drag easing faster than expected The fiscal drag in advanced economies is fading more rapidly than previously anticipated. This should provide some support for the global recovery both this year and next. However, the longer-term... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
