Europe Economics Weekly Limited room for growth-friendly fiscal policies While signs of pragmatism have recently emerged in the ongoing fiscal debate in the euro-zone, we think there is currently little room for fiscal policy to play much of a role in tackling low growth... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will public spending really reach a record next year? Ministries’ spending requests for the coming fiscal year have reached a record high, which might raise some questions about the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. However, these requests... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Algeria’s economy on an unsustainable path Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election in April seemed to mark a return to business as usual for the economy. However, Algeria’s growth model is looking increasingly unsustainable. If... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: What might a Silva presidency mean for the economy? The economic programme put forward by presidential hopeful Marina Silva is a step in the right direction insofar as it addresses many of the problems that have contributed to a general decline in... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP overhaul merely tweaks the big picture Last week’s revised GDP estimates were seemingly all things to all men, supporting political parties’ views and every economist’s forecasts for interest rates and fiscal policy. In reality, the new... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Economic Outlook The recovery in Emerging Europe has fizzled out in recent months and we think growth will be sluggish over the coming quarters. The crisis in Ukraine presents one headwind, particularly for Russia... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Dubai now over its debt problems? The past month has brought further news that Dubai’s government-related entities, which were at the heart of the Emirate’s crisis in 2009, are tackling their debt problems. But while these latest... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation threat raises pressure on the ECB August’s fall in euro-zone HICP inflation from 0.4% to 0.3% left it at its lowest rate sinceOctober 2009, when it was negative, and well beneath the ECB’s target of “below, but closeto, 2%”. What’s... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Can Japan’s population be stabilised at 100 million? Japan’s shrinking working-age population is a constant drag on economic growth. Unfortunately, policy measures that might help to stabilise the population would have substantial fiscal costs, which... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New light on government borrowing Reforms just agreed should drastically reduce off-budget borrowing by local governments and make it much easier to monitor the build-up of government debt. These moves are long overdue but the fact... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Fiscal positions strengthened across most of the peripheral economies in July, although we havegrowing concerns about Portugal’s ability to meet its target for this year. (Chart 1). 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the consumption tax be raised again? Japan’s government is debating whether to implement a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% in October next year. The fiscal case for a higher tax rate is overwhelming, in particular since the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Mexico turning the corner The past month has brought signs that Mexico’s economy is finally turning the corner. latestdata suggest that the Mexican economy has turned the corner. GDP expanded by a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% q/q... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Major fiscal improvement has already occurred The CBO’s latest budget projections highlight the extent of the improvement in America’s fiscalposition in recent years. At the same time, the CBO appears to agree with the Fed’s assessment thatthere... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French political turmoil adds to near-term economic risks The latest anti-austerity backlash from within the French Government, together with supportive comments from the ECB, offer hope that the euro-zone’s fiscal straightjacket could be loosened in future... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read