Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget assumptions already look out of date The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation a bigger threat to Sweden than Budget chaos The new Swedish Government lost a key parliamentary vote on its Budget today, throwing politics in the country into turmoil and raising the possibility of fresh elections. But the potential upheaval... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. Our more... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in October, but Portugal is expected to miss its target for 2014 as a whole. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does the Chancellor have up his sleeve? While the rumour mill has been fairly silent, the Chancellor is surely piecing together a small package of measures for his Autumn Statement to provide a pre-election boost to households’ finances. A... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Two cheers for Brazil’s new economic team The announcement of a new economic team in Brazil – and the nomination of Joaquim Levy as Finance Minister in particular – will strengthen hopes for a return to more orthodox policies during President... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC may be resuming FX intervention There are tentative signs that the People’s Bank (PBOC) has resumed currency intervention. Foreign exchange purchases by all financial institutions, a proxy for purchases by the PBOC, turned positive... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014 Preview George Osborne will present his fifth Autumn Statement on 3rd December under mounting pressure from his fiscal and opinion poll deficits. Despite this, he seems unlikely to panic and abandon his tough... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Troika call to pay taxes faster may hurt Greek recovery The Greek Government does not appear to have been too rattled by last month’s market turmoil, sticking to its budget plan despite opposition from the Troika. But it may come under pressure to seek... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The economy and the election With less than six months to go until the general election, opinion polls suggest that another hung parliament is likely. But the state of the economy next May still has the potential to change the... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) The latest public borrowing figures showed that the economic recovery is still doing little to heal the public finances and so undermined the view that the books can be balanced through spending cuts... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has Abenomics failed? To some, the continued fall in output last quarter is proof that Abenomics has failed. However, the economy has actually done fairly well over the past two years considering the strong demographic... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Missed fiscal target this year would not be all bad news India looks set to miss its fiscal target this year, even in the optimistic case that the government fully delivers on its plans to sell stakes in state-owned companies. But this was always likely... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How implausible is a Russian government debt default? The recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the drop in the ruble, has revived memories of 1998 in Russia, when similar developments culminated in a government debt default. The state of Russia’s... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can we trust Brazil’s fiscal figures? The official data published by the Brazilian authorities give a false impression of the country’s fiscal health. We estimate that various accounting tricks have helped to narrow the reported... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
