UK Economics Update Rising interest bill may prevent easing of austerity plans The colossal downward revision to the OBR’s forecast for interest payments in the Autumn Statement highlighted that the amount of austerity needed to attain a budget surplus is very sensitive to... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Acc. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) Turkey’s current account deficit continued to decline in October and the fall in oil prices means it should narrow even further, towards 5% of GDP, over the coming months. Meanwhile, Hungary’s CPI... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will be the fall-out from the latest Greek crisis? Contagion effects from Greece’s latest crisis have so far been reassuringly limited. But that may not last and the episode is a reminder that even those economies which have cut their budget deficits... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt settlement increasingly unlikely before 2016 An improvement in Argentina’s foreign currency liquidity makes it much less likely that the government will reach a settlement with holdout creditors in the New Year and exit default. Indeed, we... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek yields to remain high despite programme extension The two-month extension to Greece’s EU programme, agreed yesterday by euro-zone finance ministers, was expected given recent wrangling over the Greek Budget. But the further austerity it could bring... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Four fiscal fragilities could emerge in time While the Autumn Statement once again saw the Chancellor make the most of a poor hand, we remain concerned that many of his fiscal gambles are unlikely to fully pay off. To our minds, the assumptions... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How much will Asia benefit from falling oil prices? Most of Emerging Asia stands to benefit from lower oil prices, and in a couple of economies, Korea and Taiwan, we think the impact will be large enough to warrant an increase in our growth forecasts... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement unlikely to transform consumer recovery The measures announced in the Autumn Statement should provide a slight boost to consumers’ incomes next year. However, the size of the giveaway is very small. Accordingly, the onus remains on growth... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The OBR’s pessimism on the economy may not be justified The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) presented the Chancellor with a fairly gloomy set of economic forecasts in the Autumn Statement. Whilst there are clearly a number of obstacles... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2015 China’s leaders will be gathering in Beijing shortly to discuss priorities for 2015. In this month’s China Watch we outline our views on what to expect on growth, monetary policy and reform. 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Venezuela’s oil problems spill over? Would a sovereign default in Venezuela, which now seems increasingly likely given the plunge in the price of oil, cause upheaval in the global financial markets? We suspect not, even though a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
