Japan Economics Weekly Has Abenomics failed? To some, the continued fall in output last quarter is proof that Abenomics has failed. However, the economy has actually done fairly well over the past two years considering the strong demographic... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Missed fiscal target this year would not be all bad news India looks set to miss its fiscal target this year, even in the optimistic case that the government fully delivers on its plans to sell stakes in state-owned companies. But this was always likely... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How implausible is a Russian government debt default? The recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the drop in the ruble, has revived memories of 1998 in Russia, when similar developments culminated in a government debt default. The state of Russia’s... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can we trust Brazil’s fiscal figures? The official data published by the Brazilian authorities give a false impression of the country’s fiscal health. We estimate that various accounting tricks have helped to narrow the reported... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece exits recession but big challenges remain While it is welcome news that the Greek economy has finally started growing again after seven years of recession, the recent GDP figures have not solved two of its, arguably biggest, problems: its... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely despite subsidy cuts Today’s move by Indonesia’s new president to hike fuel prices is an encouraging first step on the road to reform. Although inflation is now likely to rise sharply, any spike should prove temporary... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The surprising fall in Q3 GDP suggests that PM Abe will call off the planned increase in the sales tax next October. 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the recovery slow when the fiscal squeeze resumes? The recovery’s acceleration just as the pace of fiscal consolidation eased last year could suggest that GDP growth will slow sharply when the fiscal squeeze re-intensifies after the general election... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government better positioned to provide stimulus Amidst challenging economic times, the Conservative-led government has fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit and is now focused on fortifying its majority government in next... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Growing pile of foreign cash won’t help the domestic economy The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gets serious about fiscal consolidation South Africa’s Medium Term Budget (MTB), announced last month, received a mixed reception. Government bond yields fell slightly on the day it was announced. But last week, Moody’s downgraded South... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering an era of softer growth as oil boom fades The sharp slide in oil prices since the summer won’t cause a major headache for the Gulf States, but it does reinforce the point that these economies are set to lose some steam over the coming years... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Significant slowdown still looks unlikely Fears that the UK’s economic recovery is rapidly losing steam appear largely overblown. Admittedly, the Markit/CIPS Composite PMI, which weights together the headline indices for the manufacturing... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
