India Chart Pack Further rate cuts are on the way The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shocked markets earlier this month by cutting its main policy rates at an unscheduled meeting. The accompanying statement also paved the way for further policy... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian government starting to face up to fiscal realities Today’s meeting between President Putin and government ministers to discuss anti-crisis measures and budget amendments suggests that the authorities are finally starting to acknowledge the new... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s new fiscal and growth targets are achievable Most economies in Emerging Asia will benefit from falling oil prices. The big exception is Malaysia, where the government today revised its 2015 forecasts for the budget deficit, GDP growth and the... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation should be briefer in the UK than overseas With E.On’s cut in gas prices probably kicking off a more widespread round of utility price cuts and oil prices falling even further last week, a brief dip into outright deflation now seems more... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Fading fiscal headwind to bolster demand Despite surging tax revenues, we doubt that the government will reach its target of halving the primary deficit in the coming fiscal year. However, fading fiscal drag should at least ensure that the... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Decline in oil prices not a disaster for Nigeria’s public finances The dramatic fall in oil prices since last summer will take a significant chunk out of the Nigerian government’s tax receipts, but we do not think it will be disastrous. Although measures to boost non... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dilma’s second term agenda takes shape The key elements of Brazil’s President Rousseff’s policy agenda for her second term in office have started to emerge over the past month. The central theme is a return to “orthodoxy”, with fiscal and... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Ghana GDP (Q3) & Kenya Interest Rate Ghana’s GDP growth picked up in Q3, to 5.1% y/y, following a sharp slowdown in Q2. But given the declines in commodity prices, and tight monetary and fiscal policy, we think that the economy will grow... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weaker note Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy eased towards the end of last year, but there aren’t any signs that the plunge in oil prices has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit North Africa We’ve written extensively in recent months about the losses the Gulf economies face in light of the plunge in oil prices. But in this Watch we explain why the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How might debt restructuring by Greece affect the IMF? Whether or not Syriza forms its next government, Greece is unlikely to default on its bail-out loans from the IMF. However, if it does so, the political fallout for the IMF itself would be serious. 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shining a light on “stealth” stimulus Markets have latched onto two low-key policy developments at the start of 2015 as evidence that policymakers are pursuing both monetary and fiscal stimulus by stealth. We don’t think either amounts to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
