Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: at a turning point or heading deeper into the mire? A programme of government austerity will result in modest improvements to Brazil’s budget and current account deficits over the next year but at the expense of extremely weak growth and, in the near... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs are most at risk from dollar strength? The US dollar’s recent strong run has raised concerns that EMs with large holdings of dollar-denominated debt will come under pressure. Indeed, India’s central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, has gone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What can the Eurogroup do about Greece? Tomorrow’s meeting of euro-zone finance ministers (the “Eurogroup”) takes place against a background of extreme urgency to meet Greece’s near-term financing needs. While some solution appears possible... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery set to be slow-going Following last year’s sharp downturn, economic growth in Latin America should improve this year and next. But the pace of the recovery will be slow-going and GDP growth will remain far weaker than... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is deflation here to stay this time? The latest bout of deflation in the euro-zone looks set to last rather longer than the brief period of falling prices seen back in 2009. With vast amounts of slack in the economy and inflation... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economic recovery maintain its pace? The latest news suggests that the economic recovery is getting back on track after a slowdown towards the end of last year. Indeed, we remain optimistic about the growth outlook. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Grexit risks rising Several developments last week arguably brought Greece closer to exiting the euro-zone than it has ever been. While the Government appeared to give ground on its demands for debt restructuring, its... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the peripheral economies continued to strengthen their budget positions at the end of last year. But many look set to have missed their 2014 targets and Greece’s... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 7.1% last month was driven by a combination of higher food prices, caused by the continuing droughts, and increases in regulated prices as part of the... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which governments gain the most from lower bond yields? If they are sustained, the recent sharp falls in government bond yields will be most helpful for the fiscal positions of southern euro-zone countries such as Italy and Spain. But along with Japan... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Modest recovery continues despite Greek crisis Euro-zone economic activity has continued to recover despite the troubles in Greece. For now, worries about the crisis seem to have been offset by the benefits of a weaker euro and falling producer... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Eurobond debts manageable, for now The issuance of over USD18bn worth of US dollar denominated debt by Sub-Saharan African (SSA) states has raised concerns about the region’s rising level of indebtedness, but we believe that most of... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman to muddle through in 2015-16 but fiscal squeeze looming Oman is one of the few Gulf States that isn’t well placed to weather a period of low oil prices and, as a result, a fiscal squeeze will be needed. The authorities may be able to muddle through over... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts 2015 on a surer footing While the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP indicated that the recovery lost pace towards the end of 2014, early 2015 appears to have seen a renewed acceleration. Indeed, monthly indicators of output... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal and monetary policy after the election CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
