Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Current Account (Mar.) Changes to the methodology that Brazil uses to produce its balance of payments data have resulted in an even larger current account deficit. However, the impact on financial markets – and the currency... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austria’s bank troubles will have euro-zone repercussions The ongoing uncertainty and legal suits over the wind-down of a small Austrian provincial bank might seem like the least of the euro-zone’s current concerns. But the wind-down of Hypo Alpe Adria’s bad... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Continued fiscal restraint will slow economy down Although the Conservative-led government fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit, fiscal restraint at this juncture seems unnecessary considering the negative fallout from the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation starting to firm Core inflation is beginning to show signs of firming. The rebound in the annual core CPI inflation rate to 1.8% in March may not be enough to leave Fed officials "reasonably confident" that inflation... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Reasons to remain upbeat on Mexico Despite a recession in the mining sector and an impending fiscal squeeze, we remain upbeat about Mexico. A gradual improvement in the labour market and a likely recovery in the US, after a weak start... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How has investment fared since the crisis? One of the most disappointing features of advanced economies in recent years has been the weakness of investment. In part, this is because investment tends to mirror the performance of the economy as... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC steps up policy support Sunday’s cut to the required reserve ratio for China’s banks signals a stepping-up of policy support. The 100bp cut was double the usual size and the first move on this scale since late 2008. It is... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook More winners than losers The pace of global growth slowed in the first quarter, but it is likely to recover during the rest of the year and in 2016. The windfall gains from lower oil prices, rising employment and continued... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will QE spur a revival in investment? The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Are Dutch consumers now ready to spend? Dutch consumers have finally started to open their wallets, prompting hopes of a consumer-led economic revival. But even if renewed falls in household spending look unlikely, the combination of the... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal paths not as different as manifestos imply The political parties’ manifestos have confirmed that the scale of the fiscal squeeze could be very different depending on which of them is in power. But there are various factors that will probably... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strong dollar unlikely to trigger a re-run of Lat Am crises Despite falling back a little over the past few weeks, the strength of the US dollar has rekindled fears in Latin America of a re-run of the economic crises that swept across the region in the 1980s... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French tax breaks seem unlikely to revive investment Investment has been the weakest link in France’s feeble economic recovery so far. But it is not clear that the French Government’s latest plans will alter this picture dramatically. For that, a... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
