Latin America Economics Update Brazil heads deeper into the fiscal mire It is, in truth, too soon to expect any improvement in Brazil’s public finances as a result of the belt-tightening measures introduced over the past few months, but the fact that the fiscal position... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could a debt default revive the Greek economy? While euro-zone officials appear increasingly resigned to some form of Greek sovereign debt default, we doubt that this alone would revive the economy and secure the country’s membership of the euro. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Preview: Disappointing as well as “dull” While Tuesday’s Federal Budget may well live up to the “dull” label slapped on it by the Prime Minister, the failure to provide any extra support to the economy will be disappointing. This would place... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Structural budget balances don’t tell the whole story In theory the structural budget balance, which takes account of whether an economy is running above or below its potential level, provides a useful summary of a government’s fiscal position. On this... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Post-election negotiations unlikely to redraw fiscal outlook Our Election Preview, published 30th April, contains our detailed analysis on the election. Here we answer questions clients may have about the possible series of events over the coming days and weeks... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria 2015 budget: looking behind the numbers Falling oil revenue will cause Nigeria’s fiscal deficit to widen in 2015, but we do not expect the shortfall to exceed 2% of GDP. Despite talk of tightening fiscal policy, federal government spending... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone fiscal data showed that only Italy and Ireland made any improvement in their budgetary positions in Q1. And the latest data from Greece are far from encouraging. 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery falters The recovery that was seemingly underway in most parts of Latin America towards the end of last year appears to have faltered in recent months. Indeed, our proprietary GDP Tracker suggests that the... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Ireland’s economic recovery a statistical illusion? The strength of Ireland’s recovery has been overstated due to a number of statistical distortions to GDP. But the economy does still seem to be on the mend. And the conditions are in place for Ireland... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How fragile is Malaysia? Given that Malaysia is Emerging Asia’s largest net energy exporter it is no surprise that the ringgit has been the region’s worst performing currency over the last nine months. Now that oil prices... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Election 2015 Preview The economic outlook will not turn on a sixpence after the election. Granted, the election may mark only the start of a period of political uncertainty and, on paper, the differences between Labour’s... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Slow out of the blocks Emerging Asia has made a weak start to the year. The headlines have been grabbed by China's slowdown but, a few positive signs from India aside, there has been little cause for cheer around the rest... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Borrowing no substitute for reform in Angola The Angolan government’s attempt to use external borrowing to plug the country’s twin fiscal and current account shortfalls opened by low oil prices is, at best, a temporary measure. This will... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence not dented by election uncertainty With two weeks until May’s general election, the polls still show that no party is likely to win an overall majority and the composition of the next government is unclear. Despite this ongoing... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s politics take another twist The conflict in Yemen and an outline nuclear agreement between Iran and the West has thrust the region’s politics back into the spotlight. Although it looks like problems in Yemen are likely to drag... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
