UK Economic Outlook Households well-placed to endure renewed fiscal squeeze Households have rarely had it so good – no inflation, strong jobs growth, reviving earnings, a breather from austerity and falling borrowing costs. As a result, we think that real household spending... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB be happy with the first 10 weeks of QE? The ECB Governing Council has a right to be cautiously optimistic about the first ten weeks of QE. But we share its view that this does not mean that QE should end early. On the contrary, we think... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a referendum end the Greek crisis? A public referendum could help to break the current deadlock between Greece and its creditors. But it might only be a short-term solution and much could depend on its precise purpose and phrasing. 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal policy to be more supportive in coming quarters Policymakers are moving to ensure that funding difficulties don’t disrupt local government spending plans. This doesn’t constitute an about-turn in efforts to restrict off-budget borrowing, as some... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market ‘rout’ poses little threat to economy The recent sharp rise in government bond yields, most pronounced at the long end, has fuelled concerns about its potential adverse impact on the economy. After all, since it has not been accompanied... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Renewed recession adds to Greece’s woes The Greek crisis has intensified, with last week’s Eurogroup meeting offering little hope of near-term financial support and the Government resorting to reserves held at the IMF to make a loan... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget hits ball back into the RBA’s court The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasurer appear to be playing tennis with the economy. RBA Governor Stevens has already cut interest rates to 2.0% and hinted that he would like fiscal policy to... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery stalls as Brazil suffers renewed downturn The recovery that appeared to be underway in Latin America at the end of last year has faded in recent months, with several of the region’s economies experiencing renewed downturns. The latest... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Response – Economy hung out to dry The 2015-16 Budget will quash any talk of a credit rating downgrade, but won’t give the economy a much-needed helping hand. The decision by Treasurer Joe Hockey not reduce the coming fiscal squeeze... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Chinese tourists to keep current account surplus in check China’s goods trade surplus last year was a third higher in dollar terms than at the previous peak in 2008. Yet the country’s current account surplus – the broadest measure of its economic imbalance... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Austerity and low inflation likely to keep MPC inactive Since the first estimate of Q1 GDP has cast some doubt over the recovery’s health, the MPC is likely to have voted unanimously again at this month’s meeting to keep interest rates on hold. And while... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Tory majority brings more clarity to fiscal outlook The Tories’ outright majority indicates that the economy is clearly heading for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze next year. This will represent only the first step towards their... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the general election changed the consumer outlook? With the Conservatives achieving an overall majority in the general election, we now know that consumers are set to face another five years of harsh austerity. But on the whole, households look better... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update UK election eases political uncertainty, but sterling risks remain Financial markets have initially welcomed the clarity and continuity resulting from the Conservative Party’s unexpectedly decisive victory in the UK general election. Political risks have undoubtedly... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Tory win removes risk of prolonged political uncertainty With the Conservatives on course to achieve an overall majority, the UK general election result is a surprisingly market-friendly outcome and removes the risk that the economy suffers a prolonged... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New Finnish coalition’s austerity to drag on growth The new coalition government is likely to impose significant budget cuts that would drag on Finland’s already ailing economy. But there are reasons to think that fiscal consolidation might be less of... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
