UK Economics Update Pension reforms giving small boost to spending The Chancellor’s announcement regarding the amount of money withdrawn from pensions since the new freedoms took effect in April supports our view that the changes will provide a boost, but a... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan’s budget deficit continue to shrink? Even if the government goes ahead with the sales tax that is currently scheduled for 2017, we think it will struggle to reduce the budget deficit much further. Rather than more fiscal reforms, the... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s default options This Update takes a detailed look at the forms of debt default that Greece might employ to reduce near-term financing pressures and lower its debt burden. There are various possible options, but the... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why there is no free lunch for Russia’s government There appears to be a great deal of confusion about how Russia can use its oil funds to finance its budget deficit, with some arguing that by drawing them down in rubles the government can both... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy still not ready to pay down its debt Italy’s fiscal position is gradually improving. But contrary to the message from official forecasts, Italy has not yet done enough to start paying down its colossal public debt. 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the Chancellor’s budget surplus law a step too far? Last week’s announcement by the Chancellor that he intends to pass a law to require all future governments to run a budget surplus “in normal times” engendered more accusations that he is playing... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece finally blink? Greece’s creditors have made it clear that the ball is firmly in its court to make the concessionsneeded to reach a last-minute agreement. But even if Greece finally blinks, the stop-gap deal that... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update East African budgets boost investment, keep fiscal deficits wide East African governments’ focus on infrastructure spending will provide a boost for growth, but fiscal deficits in Kenya and Uganda are likely to remain a concern. Revenue projections rely on... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Abenomics working after all? The jump in output in Q1 and, over a longer period, rapid growth in the number of people available for work are signs that Abenomics is starting to have an impact. However, the economy likely slowed... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local government debt swap doubled Today’s doubling of the quota for local government debt swaps indicates that the central government believes the programme has so far been a success, even if banks have only been buying the new bonds... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Optimism over opening up of Saudi’s stock market seems overdone The move by Saudi Arabia to open up its stock market to foreign investors from next week is a step in the right direction. But, as we explain in this Watch, we think some of the optimism about its... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No California dreaming for Greece The repeated failure to agree on austerity measures together with threats of default and the prospect of IOUs have prompted comparisons between Greece’s situation and that in California in 2009. But... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ending Iceland’s capital controls not yet a done deal The Icelandic Government today presented its long-awaited plan to lift its capital controls after more than six years. While a detailed programme for their removal is a welcome step, the controversial... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
