Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Greece limited for now Greece’s crisis escalated further in June, culminating in a default to the IMF, the imposition of capital controls and the expiry of the second bailout programme. In response, Greek 10 year government... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tsipras blinks, but Grexit risks are still high The expiry of Greece’s second bailout programme and its “default” to the IMF have raised the crisis to a new level. With latest polls suggesting that a majority of voters will vote to reject the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Risk of “Grexit” hangs over Asia’s export outlook The direct links between Emerging Asia and Greece are very limited. Exports to Greece account for only a tiny proportion of regional GDP, while banking sector ties are negligible. What matters more... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine policymakers still up to their old tricks Argentina’s statistics office reported that GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in Q1, but independent data suggestthat although conditions have improved, there has not yet been a return to growth. And worryingly... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Why hasn't the fading fiscal drag boosted GDP growth? With the best will in the world towards the anti-austerians, the bigger fiscal squeeze in 2013 had amuch smaller impact on the economy's performance than many feared, while the more recentfading of... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean government responds to MERS threat The Korean government’s proposed fiscal stimulus package comes in response to the growing threat on the economy posed by the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Although details of... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek crisis casts fresh cloud over outlook The deepening crisis in Greece has been met with a muted reaction in the financial markets inEmerging Europe and there are few signs that it has had any impact on economic activity in theregion... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s government wavering on fiscal consolidation Egypt’s public finances are gradually improving, but the recent watering down of tax and spending measures combined with the relatively unambitious targets set out in a recent draft budget has raised... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery Some of India's latest activity data are showing signs of improvement. For example, industrial production has accelerated over the past few months. Measures of expenditure and income tell a similar... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The end is (really) near The failure to reach a deal at last week’s Eurogroup meeting and the rapid outflow of deposits from Greek banks suggest that a near-term euro-zone exit may now be more likely than not. We do not buy... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures brought some more good news to the Chancellor ahead of his first Budget of the new parliament on 8th July. However, with a long way to go in order to restore the public... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another scary peek at Greece’s debt dynamics A look at Greece’s debt outlook using plausible economic assumptions underlines the inevitability of a substantial form of default, inside or outside the euro-zone. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
