Africa Economics Update Nigeria: The dangers of ‘feed bottle federalism’ The slowly-unfolding budgetary crisis affecting Nigeria’s 36 state-level governments poses some risk to the central governmnet’s fiscal health. But, more importantly, it also exemplifies the flaws in... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Romanian MPC sounding increasingly cautious Having left its policy interest rate on hold at 1.75% earlier today, the Romanian MPC used this afternoon’s press conference to suggest that the government’s plans to loosen fiscal policy raise the... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) The peripheral economies continued to make fiscal progress in June. But halfway through the year, most have much more work to do if they are to meet their 2015 budget targets. The economic... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil slashes its fiscal goals The substantial cuts to Brazil’s primary surplus targets announced this month underline the inherent difficulty of fixing budget problems against the backdrop of a weakening economy. As it happens... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Government audit puts focus on corruption An audit of government expenditure provides yet more evidence of widespread corruption in Kenya. But while the new findings make for grim reading, the existence of the report – and others like it – is... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: New Eurobond raises regional debt concerns The high yield demanded for Zambia’s recent Eurobond is not just a sign of that country’s deteriorating fiscal position. Market sentiment towards Sub-Saharan African government debt seems to be... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Renewed focus on Gulf’s fiscal positions The fresh fall in oil prices has turned attention back to fiscal positions in the Gulf, with the UAE’s government the latest to announce measures to rein in spending. The UAE plans to deregulate fuel... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Net government debt to remain stable We expect the ratio of net government debt to GDP to remain broadly unchanged in coming years, as a weaker yen and a buoyant stock market should lift the value of public assets by enough to offset... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy being dragged down by investment slump The slump in oil prices has already pushed the Canadian economy into a mild recession and things could yet go from bad to worse. Falling energy investment will hit both production and jobs, which will... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to growth being markedly slower than the official figures show. That said, it supports the view that growth stabilised in Q2 and that policy support has recently... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s bailout bad for the euro? The recent decline in the euro suggests that the markets see the new Greek bailout plan as less favourable for the single currency than a swift Grexit. But the driving force on the euro over the next... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) While June’s public finances brought less encouraging news on the pace of deficit reduction, there is no need for the Chancellor to panic yet. Indeed, robust growth in tax receipts suggests that the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs labour market losing some momentum The equity market has received all the attention recently but evidence that the labour market is coming off the boil arguably matters more to China’s economy. There was a big fall in the ratio of job... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policymakers choke off the recovery? Over the coming months, the economy will have to absorb both a renewed fiscal tightening and the first rise in interest rates since 2007. But the public sector cuts will now be phased in more... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How worrying is the rise in unemployment? The surprise rise in unemployment revealed by last week’s labour market figures might be just a blip. However, the fact that both main measures of unemployment rose makes it harder to dismiss this as... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the rest of the world hold the UK back? Although external threats to the UK economy have multiplied this year, we do not think that they are likely to derail the recovery. Indeed, the resilience of the UK’s economic recovery has shocked... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
