Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have strengthened their fiscal positions further in the year to August. But for most, this year’s budget targets still look ambitious. 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry begins to see the bigger picture The Finance Ministry’s combative approach to some key issues, including the retrospective taxation of foreign companies and the potential composition of the proposed monetary policy committee, has... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty back to the top of the agenda This week it will be uncertainty over fiscal policy and a possible Federal government shutdown that dominates the headlines. Congress needs to pass a continuing spending resolution by the end of... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Public finances should come good again soon Last week’s public finance figures suggested that deficit reduction has hit a roadblock. But the path of reduction has hardly been a completely smooth one so far. And the strong economic recovery in... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: in a fiscal hole, but default fears overdone Brazil’s public finances are in a mess, but mounting fears of a sovereign default are overdone. 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central & South Eastern Europe a rare EM bright spot Emerging Europe remains a region of two halves. Its two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – will continue to struggle over the coming years as cyclical downturns compound long-standing structural... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public borrowing figures brought the recent run of good news on the public finances to an abrupt end. That said, hopefully this will just be a temporary blip, as tax receipts should be... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack FM Jaitley is playing a risky game India’s Finance Ministry continues to tread on dangerous ground by becoming increasingly vocal in its calls for further monetary easing. Most recently in an interview over the weekend, Finance... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would the public finances be better off after a Brexit? The UK Government could save about £10bn per year on its contributions to the EU’s budget if it left the EU. But a Brexit would not need to create much economic disruption to offset these savings... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Sep.) Our Argentina Activity indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew in Q2 for the first time since 2013. However, this appears to have been due largely to an aggressive loosening of fiscal policy... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Syriza defeat kill the anti-austerity movement? Suggestions that a defeat for the Syriza party in this weekend’s Greek election would kill off the eurozone’s anti-austerity movement are over the top. But there is little prospect of Germany and the... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Policies to promote FDI are paying dividends Measures taken by the government to encourage foreign direct investment into India are showing signs of success. Net FDI inflows rose last quarter to their highest level as a share of GDP since Q4... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 3.1% of GDP in Q2. While this is welcome news, a more detailed look at the figures highlight the economy’s... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
