Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s balance sheet strains back in the spotlight Spillovers from the war in Gaza and threats of cuts to foreign assistance from the US have thrown the spotlight onto Jordan’s shaky balance of payments and public finances. For now, we think that the... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Defence and growth in Germany: a closer look We think Germany is likely to raise defence spending by around 1.5% of GDP between 2024 and 2027. With the government unlikely to cut other spending much and the defence industry well placed to raise... 2nd April 2025 · 18 mins read
UK Economic Outlook UK Outlook: Headwinds strengthen and tailwinds lighten We’ve become more concerned about the outlook for the economy due to the drags from higher businesses taxes and the more uncertain global backdrop being bigger than we thought and the boost from... 31st March 2025 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: budget deficit gives no room to cushion tariff hit The blowout in Mexico’s budget deficit to its largest level since the 1980s last year means that the government has little scope to offset the hit to the economy from US tariffs. There’ll probably be... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 31st March 2025 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 25) Mounting US tariffs will add to a broader slowdown in exports this year. Domestic headwinds are also set to persist. A significant loosening of fiscal policy will help support the economy, but we don... 28th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariffs dampen the mood With the major business surveys for March now published it is clear that economic activity is still growing slowly at best. The good news about the German fiscal stimulus has boosted sentiment but the... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Fiscal risks much bigger than tariff risks While the possibility of more US tariffs on UK exports will dominate next week, the bigger risk over the next six months or so comes from the unfinished fiscal business after the Chancellor’s fiscal... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Auto tariffs, Black Sea ceasefire, Israel budget Hungary and Slovakia will be affected more than most if the Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% auto import tariff isn’t reversed. Elsewhere, efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA remains on course to deliver shallow easing cycle With its eyes on the May general election, the Australian government has put forward an array of new spending measures in its 2025/26 Budget. However, we don't believe the scope of fiscal expansion is... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Brightening prospects – more so if Ukraine war ends We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts across most of the region for this year and think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies will pick up pace going into 2026, despite the headwind from... 27th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Tariffs to push Canada into recession We have raised our assumption for the average US tariff rate that Canadian exporters will face, to a level that will likely push the economy into recession. The downturn should be only moderate if, as... 27th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s budget laid out, Saudi spending cuts Egypt’s FY2025/26 Budget outlined that the overall budget deficit will remain large, but that’s due to high interest payments. The government is committed to continuing to run a large primary surplus... 27th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s... 27th March 2025 · 45 mins read
