China Economics Update Hukou reform is no panacea for weak consumption Chinese policymakers have already improved rural migrants’ access to urban public services considerably over the past decade. The latest State Council plan is a continuation of those efforts rather... 28th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. High energy prices have given a boost to terms of trade in many Latin American... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What lies in store for Colombia’s markets post-election? Colombian assets would rally in the event of a victory for a right-wing candidate in the presidential election. Local currency bond yields appear to have the greatest scope to stage a post-election... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How will the UK government raise defence spending? An increase in defence spending could represent a significant source of extra demand in the UK. But the UK’s weak fiscal position suggests higher defence spending will need to be mostly funded by tax... 26th May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Apr. 2026) The drop in retail sales volumes and the public borrowing overshoot in April highlights the deteriorating growth outlook and fragile fiscal backdrop that will face whoever is in 10 Downing Street. 22nd May 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update The JGB selloff is nearing a crucial point While FX intervention dominated the headlines a couple of weeks ago, Japan’s bond markets have come under increasing pressure. This Update argues that most of the past rise in yields has been benign... 21st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tax changes not a major threat to housing market Some commentators have been arguing that the tax changes announced in last week’s Budget will end the 30-year super cycle in housing. By contrast, we’re not convinced that the attractiveness of... 18th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ lifts 10-year yield to three-decade high The 10-year JGB yield climbed to a three decade high this week in response to hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan and reports that the government will compile a supplementary budget to keep the... 15th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal crossroads: continuity or austerity? A victory for left-wing Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s presidential election would probably continue the Petro government’s track record of running large budget deficits, causing Colombia’s sovereign risk... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget leaves RBA to do the heavy lifting on inflation The Australian government’s 2026/27 Budget does little to move the needle on fiscal policy. Although Commonwealth coffers will benefit from a windfall driven by higher commodity prices, much of this... 12th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited scope for fiscal support in energy price shock Governments in developed economies have so far been circumspect in providing fiscal support to households to cushion the impact of higher energy prices. This is likely to remain the case given that... 11th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom rates, Brazil’s rare earths, fiscal developments With the latest indicators suggesting that Brazil's economy is holding up well and the labour market is still strong, we now expect the Selic rate to end this year at 13.25% (compared to 12.50%... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political change won’t alter economic and fiscal constraints Once a fuller picture of the results emerges later today and tomorrow, yesterday’s local elections could be historic as it could bring an end to Starmer’s tenure as Prime Minister and highlight that... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets? With Starmer’s premiership looking on the precipice, we are resending this analysis we published on Friday 8th May that highlights the main policies of his potential replacements and what they might... 8th May 2026 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow regardless of Budget While Treasurer Jim Chalmers has indicated that the government will unveil large savings in the upcoming Budget, most of those will probably be used to finance higher spending. The key point though is... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
