Europe Economics Update Will the Paris attacks loosen Europe’s fiscal shackles? While fiscal authorities may tolerate increased security spending by some governments after the Paris terror attacks, suggestions that Europe’s budget rules will be swept aside are over the top. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s slow burning fiscal problem Despite a sharp fall in energy revenues, there is no imminent risk of a fiscal crisis in Russia. Accordingly, we don’t share the view that the government needs to tighten policy immediately; indeed... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 Antalya summit The annual G20 leaders’ summit, to be held in Turkey on 15-16 th November, should be less acrimonious than many previous gatherings. Tensions over exchange rate policy, global imbalances, fiscal and... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy could be helped by quick EU referendum We have known for some time the Government’s broad objectives for its negotiations with the EU and David Cameron’s letter last week to the European Council President Donald Tusk contained little... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s economy likely to continue to disappoint Today’s Italian GDP data were disappointing and we expect the economy to continue to grow at a fairly slow pace. As a result, the government debt-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to fall over the coming years... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown bolsters case for delay in sales tax hike The government has set itself a stringent target for eliminating the budget deficit and currently intends to raise the sales tax again in 2017 to help it achieve that end. The economic weakness that... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Greek economy out of danger? The recent run of surprisingly strong data from Greece does not mean that the economy is out of danger. Not only has some survey evidence painted a much gloomier picture, but the full adverse economic... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia turns to international bond markets to plug shortfall Reports that Saudi Arabia will launch an international bond provides some clarity on how the budget deficit will be financed over the next year – as things stand, we think around 65% will come from... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland, the PiS and a populist shift Last month’s Polish election heralds a shift towards more populist policymaking under Law and Justice (PiS). In this Watch, we look at which areas are most likely to see a shift in policy and what the... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy will struggle to cope with oil shock Although the mild recession in the first half of this year has ended, the drag from falling business investment triggered by the slump in oil prices is far from over and growing imbalances in the... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Belgium’s tax shift boost growth? Belgium has the highest tax burden on labour in Europe, so measures announced recently aimed at reducing it are a positive step. However, the reforms do not go far enough. Accordingly, over the next... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) The euro-zone’s peripheral economies appear to have improved their fiscal positions in the year to September. But progress hasn’t been sufficient for most to put their debt ratios on a downward trend... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downgrade puts poor fiscal position in the spotlight The decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating on Friday night is hardly surprising in light of the deterioration in the fiscal position this year and lack of a... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation target out of reach With more than half of the fiscal year having elapsed, the government’s aim of raising nearly INR700bn in revenues through the privatisation of various state-owned companies looks increasingly... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia begins to tighten its belt The past month has brought the clearest signs yet that a fiscal squeeze in Saudi Arabia is looming. According to leaked memos, the Ministry of Finance has ordered government entities to halt new... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal woes: Looking beyond the deficit Despite the steep fall in oil prices and a very weak economic growth, we expect that Nigeria’s budget deficit will remain relatively contained in 2015 and 2016. As we explain in this Watch, however... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
