UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Dec.) While the latest figures brought some better news on the public finances, the Chancellor still looks likely to overshoot his target this year. Meanwhile, despite the sharp fall in retail sales in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has deficit reduction slowed? The recent slowdown in the pace of deficit reduction seems to reflect both timing effects and a weaker economic performance than anticipated. Although progress may remain slow in the near term, we... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Market turmoil not justified by economic reality Despite the prevailing gloom about the world economy, we think global growth will pick up from around 2½% last year to 3% in both 2016 and 2017, using our own estimates for China. Growth should be... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower privatisation targets would boost credibility With only two months of this fiscal year remaining, the finance ministry’s aim of raising nearly INR700bn in revenues through the privatisation of various state-owned companies looks impossible to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran sanctions relief: assessing the impact Sanctions relief should support a revival of Iran’s economy and a short period in which it enjoys growth of as much as 6-8%. But there is unlikely to be much impact on the rest of the region, either... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s fiscal plans There appears to be a great deal of confusion surrounding Russia’s fiscal plans for this year – including a mooted 10% cut in government spending that the cabinet has reportedly agreed this week. In... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel subsidy issue still unresolved Reports of the end of Nigeria’s costly fuel subsidy scheme are greatly exaggerated. We expect that fuel distributors will require another costly bailout in 2016, which will add to Nigeria’s wide... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China holds the key to regional recovery Turmoil in China’s financial markets has fuelled concerns that its real economy is also on the brink of a crisis, but we expect continued policy support to drive a recovery over the coming months... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia aside, oil drop will benefit Emerging Europe The renewed slide in oil prices has been an important factor behind the latest deterioration in sentiment towards EMs over recent weeks. However, with the obvious exception of Russia, most countries... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What is the best way to reduce public sector debt? The easiest way to cut the government debt ratio would be to let economic growth do the work. Yet this could take decades. Cutting it faster would mean running smaller deficits at first, then... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Oil price fall further dims Malaysia’s 2016 growth outlook The renewed fall in oil prices in recent months is a further blow to Malaysia’s economy. Moreover, there is very little scope for policymakers to support growth with fiscal or monetary loosening. We... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri makes impressive start Mauricio Macri has made a strong start to his term as president of Argentina, tackling some of the country’s biggest macroeconomic distortions in his first month in office. There’s work still to do –... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A challenging year ahead 2016 won’t be an easy year for the UK economy, given the renewed fiscal squeeze and probable EU referendum in particular. Nonetheless, we expect it to weather these clouds relatively well and... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing policy risks in Brazil Fears that Brazil’s government will respond to a deepening recession by resorting to populist economic policies have surfaced over the past week. As things stand, we don’t think there is much evidence... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the Bank of Japan react to cheaper oil? The Bank of Japan will probably lower its inflation forecasts and push back the timing for reaching its 2% target yet again later this month. With cheaper energy keeping a lid on inflation, the recent... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
