Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of higher oil prices We don’t expect the recent jump in oil prices to be sustained but if we are wrong and prices stay at $85pb, annual export revenues in the Gulf would be $200bn higher than in 2017. Governments would... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the new Nafta, Amlo and receding policy risks The announcement of a trilateral trade deal with the US and Canada removes one major source of uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s outlook. The focus will increasingly shift onto the policies of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s GDP growth forecasts are far too optimistic The economic assumptions underpinning Italy’s budget forecasts look over-optimistic. As a result, while the Government expects the public debt ratio to fall over the next few years, we think that it... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, tightening cycle not over yet The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked interest rates by a further 100bp on Saturday and made clear in its policy statement that tackling the country’s mounting external imbalances remain its priority... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & IMF, Brazil’s fiscal woes, Mexico-US deal The market reaction to Argentina’s revamped IMF deal suggests that, while investors believe that sovereign default risks over the next year or so have receded, they remain elevated further out... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal outlook worse than headlines suggest We think that Italy’s budget deficit will be even wider over the next few years than the Government’s projections imply. As a result, we expect bond yields to keep on rising. But unless yields surge... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC stands pat, on-budget fiscal support maxed out The People’s Bank clearly doesn’t feel under great pressure to “follow the Fed”. It left its policy rates on hold this week after the US Fed raised rates and we expect it to cut rates in the coming... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: How a default could unfold Zambia’s debt situation is deteriorating rapidly, and concerns about hidden debts mean that the situation could be much worse than it appears. Given low debt servicing costs, a missed payment is... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s revised IMF deal The larger-than-expected increase in the size of Argentina’s revamped IMF credit line reduces debt rollover risks and is likely to lead to a rally in local markets when they open later today. The... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market sovereign debt fears on the rise Sovereign balance sheets in most of the large emerging economies are in reasonable shape, but those in a few of the smaller Frontier Market economies are very fragile. And investors’ concerns have... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to look for in Argentina’s new IMF deal With Argentina reportedly set to announce a new and improved IMF credit line later today, in this Update we outline what investors should look out for in the deal. 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy vulnerable to rate hikes Economic growth looks set to remain healthy in the near term, which will prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice more. But the Bank is underestimating both the extent to which... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: Fiscal policy needs to tighten The ECB’s loose monetary stance isn’t compatible with Slovakia’s advanced stage of the business cycle and it looks like the government will respond by tightening fiscal policy to prevent the economy... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turmoil in Argentina underscores policy challenges The surprise resignation of Argentina’s central bank governor, Luis Caputo, and nationwide strikes – in protest against President Macri’s austerity plan – underscore the difficulty of fixing the... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
