Latin America Economics Update Amlo: five things that would signal further populist shift Having struck a business-friendly tone after his election, Mexico’s president elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador has more recently begun to unnerve investors. Ahead of his inauguration on Saturday... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Higher interest rates in Italy to offset fiscal stimulus We doubt that the recent rally in Italian government bonds will last. And higher yields are already feeding through to higher borrowing costs in the private sector. We think that this will offset any... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal support will boost Polish & Czech economies Strong budget positions in Poland and the Czech Republic will allow governments to ramp up spending next year. That’s one key reason why we expect that GDP growth in 2019 in these countries will be... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fall in oil prices to boost consumer spending The sharp drop in oil prices this month supports our long-held view that lower inflation will give consumer spending a boost. And we doubt that the sell-off in the equity market will do much damage to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s referendums, Colombia’s fiscal challenge The market reaction to the incoming Mexican government’s public consultation is unlikely to be as bad as the last one, which voted to scrap a flagship airport project. Even so, it provides more... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Fall update fiscal projections too upbeat In his fall budget update, Finance Minister Bill Morneau more than used up the revenue windfall from stronger GDP growth and higher oil prices this year to increase incentives for business investment... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine austerity drive a first step on long road ahead Having already hit the IMF’s primary deficit target for this year, Argentine policymakers have made impressive progress on fiscal tightening. But the squeeze so far accounts for only a third of the... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) Were the deterioration in the public finances in October to continue, the OBR would have to reverse some of the Budget upgrade to its forecast. Borrowing may well overshoot the OBR’s forecast this... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Oil price fall to boost current account position As one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, India should be a key beneficiary of the recent slide in global oil prices. If prices remain lower, as we think likely, the oil import bill will... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Policy to loosen in a “no deal” Brexit We think that policy makers would move quickly to help the economy to get back on track in the event of a “no deal” Brexit. Despite Mark Carney’s hints to the contrary, the MPC would probably cut... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plans to offset sales tax hike won’t stop spending slump The measures under consideration to offset the damage from next year’s sales tax hike may help to soften the blow if big enough. But they are unlikely to prevent a fall in domestic demand. 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t bail out Italy The ECB has a range of tools at its disposal to respond to the situation in Italy and its effects on the wider euro-zone. But for it to use them, there would have to be a serious escalation of the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine political risk, Levy’s BNDES challenge Argentina’s Senate this week passed the government’s IMF-endorsed austerity budget for next year, but bond markets are starting to share our concerns over mounting political risks surrounding October... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe considers response to Italy The EU looks set to launch disciplinary proceedings against Italy, perhaps as soon as next week. But unless the situation in Italy escalates dramatically, the ECB is unlikely to respond. Instead, the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy contracting, Japan still loves cash The contraction in Q3 GDP that was confirmed this week is likely to be followed by a rebound over coming quarters. But the bigger picture is that growth momentum has weakened since last year and... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tosh analysis & good news from labour market The Australian Labor Party’s fiscal proposals may not be quite as restrictive as we had thought. But we still believe that fiscal policy would be tighter if Labor wins the next Federal election... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
