India Economic Outlook Election will be turning point for the economy Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of this year. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: dollar peg to stay intact but growth to be weak The fall in oil prices since late last year has cast the spotlight on to Oman’s weak balance sheet and caused the rial to come under pressure. The country’s neutral stance in regional politics means... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Full employment not good enough for BoJ The sales tax hike is likely to trigger a fall in output in Japan later this year but, thanks to counter-measures from the government, the downturn will be much less sharp than after similar tax... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Election measures raise long-term risks The drumbeat of pre-election giveaways continues at the state level in the form of loan waivers and from the national government. These steps may be effective politically but they risk eroding... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy kicks the can down the road This week, Italy’s Government again showed itself to be more flexible than many had anticipated. But its fiscal problems are far from over and, in our view, public debt still looks unsustainable in... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania to tighten purse strings, Turkey in recession The Romanian government’s measures to tighten fiscal policy next year, announced on Wednesday, support our long-held view that GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2019. Meanwhile, the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) The economy isn’t as healthy as the unrevised 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in the third quarter suggests, but providing that a Brexit deal is reached, we think GDP growth will surprise on the upside next year... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal giveaways getting ramped up The dust has barely settled from the state election results announced last week, but our prediction that they would trigger a spate of fiscal giveaways is already being borne out. Farmer loan waivers... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Shadows over 2019 lift We expect the global economy to slow further next year which will be a headwind to trade. But the government has recognised the threat to domestic demand posed by next year’s sales tax hike and... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s optimistic oil price forecasts, Morocco’s IMF deal Saudi Arabia’s 2019 budget was premised on optimistic assumptions regarding oil prices that are likely to be disappointed. If we’re right, fiscal austerity will probably return in mid-2019 and there’s... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget dispute raises risk of debt ceiling crisis in 2019 A partial government shutdown this Friday would probably have only a modest impact on the economy. With the current gridlock only likely to intensify once the Democrats assume control of the House... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: President Buhari promises policy continuity President Muhammadu Buhari’s 2019 spending plan would cut the federal deficit and leave key policies unchanged. Given political uncertainties, however, today’s speech is a poor guide to policy... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget: wishful thinking Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2019 outlined further fiscal loosening but the government seems to be relying on optimistic assumptions for oil prices to rise to almost $80pb. If prices stay low as we... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Student loans won’t tie the Chancellor’s hands Today’s announcement of a change to how student loans will be classified in the public finances increases the risk that the Government misses its main fiscal target. But this shouldn’t cause investors... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
