UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Feb.) With just eight days to go until Brexit and MPs seemingly losing their heads, it is reassuring that in February households kept calm and carried on spending. The health of the public finances in... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2019 won’t drive pick-up in growth The modest increase in spending detailed in Canada’s 2019 federal budget does little to alter the economic outlook. The onus therefore remains on the Bank of Canada to support the economy. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee rally unlikely to last The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2019 unlikely to drive pick-up in growth In the 2019 Budget, Finance Minister Bill Morneau is likely to announce some headline-grabbing policies to please voters ahead of October’s federal election. We doubt that they will amount to much in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian election, signs of stimulus in Russia Pro-IMF comments this week from the front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election race (and comedian), Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reduce the risk that this month’s vote could trigger an adverse reaction... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget deadlock, Indonesia election Economic growth in the Philippines is likely to slow unless the 2019 budget is approved soon, but the cuts the government has announced to its GDP growth forecast for this year look too severe. We... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Three takeaways from the NPC Premier Li spoke to the press at the close of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today. He offered further details on the timing and scale of policy support – smaller than in previous cycles but... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New government can’t ignore the weaker economy Irrespective of the incoming government’s planned policy, the deterioration in the economic outlook means that fiscal policy should become stimulatory to avoid exacerbating the downturn. 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Response: A sideshow surprise The Spring Statement was always going to be a sideshow to the Parliamentary votes on Brexit tonight and tomorrow, but the Chancellor managed to provide a small surprise by saying he had more money to... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Spring Statement 2019 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key official forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Spring Statement speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 13th March and to provide some instant context. 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit crunch time Next week is likely to be the biggest week for Brexit since the referendum, with crucial Parliamentary votes likely to give us some steer on where the UK is headed. Of course, it is perfectly possible... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly On contradictions (from the NPC) There is a tension between the policy stimulus announced this week at the National People’s Congress and the government’s goal of keeping the debt ratio stable. Ultimately, we expect officials to err... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Statement Preview: A holding operation The Chancellor will probably use his Spring Statement on Wednesday 13th March to show that at a time of extreme political instability and economic uncertainty the public finances are in good health... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The key takeaway from today’s policy announcements at the opening of the National People’s Congress is that the leadership are still trying to balance efforts to support growth with concerns about... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pensions, new BCB governor, Mexican bonds Noises from Brazilian lawmakers this week hinted that parts of the government’s pension reform plan could be diluted. But so far, the core components of the bill do not appear to have come up against... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
