China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong to remain weak in 2019 Hong Kong’s economy ended last year on a weak note as exports slumped and household spending softened. We think growth will remain subdued in the months ahead. The relatively expansionary budget... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt: improved fiscal health to support faster growth The recent improvement in Egypt’s budget position will be enough to keep the government’s debt ratio on a downward trend. Government bond yields are likely to fall and austerity looks set to come to... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fiscal stimulus on its way Developments this month suggest that governments in parts of the region are embarking on fiscal stimulus to boost growth and prop up popular support. Recent policy announcements in Russia and Turkey... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Ecopetrol sale won’t solve fiscal problems A partial sale of Colombia’s state-owned oil company, Ecopetrol, now appears likely and should limit the scale of fiscal austerity, particularly in 2020. But Colombia is yet to fully adjust to low oil... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: notes from the ground We have just returned from a day of meetings with clients and local contacts in Rome. In this Update, we summarise the key takeaways from the visit. While the banks are heading in the right direction... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market resilient, sterling unmoved by political split After a worrying start to the year, the economic news this week has been a little better. This supports our view that while Brexit uncertainty is hampering growth, the economy is fundamentally sound... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria actually goes to the polls, South Africa budget History suggests that, if Nigeria’s delayed election on Saturday passes peacefully, the stock market is likely to see a temporary bounce. But over a longer time horizon, global factors are likely to... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly MPC minutes, farmer handouts, Kashmir The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s 7 th February policy meeting – in which rates were cut – reveal a significant difference of opinion between MPC members on the outlook for core inflation. We share... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) The last set of public finances figures released before the Spring Statement put the government on track to undershoot the OBR’s borrowing forecast of £25.5bn in the 2018-19 financial year. That gives... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the Pemex problem The Mexican government’s bailout for Pemex last week is unlikely to solve the company’s fundamental issues, which stem from an extremely heavy tax burden and chronically low productivity. In the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension plan ambitious, but just a starting point The Brazilian government’s pension reform plan unveiled today lives up to high hopes and is likely to sustain the rally in local markets over the coming weeks. But history suggests that the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: budget reflects Eskom’s problems The wider-than-expected South African fiscal deficit projections announced in today’s budget are a result of measures to deal with the financial troubles of Eskom and other struggling state-owned... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Pre-election loosening to provide short-lived support Measures to loosen both fiscal and monetary policy announced this month could provide a small boost to demand in the near-term. The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget to shore up... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: a primer on pension reform Rumours about the shape of the Brazilian government’s pension reform that will be presented to congress on Wednesday suggest that it is ambitious and would, if implemented in full, stabilise the... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policy response to a no deal Brexit As demand and supply would both drop after a no deal Brexit, it’s not obvious how policy should respond. But our view that the drop in demand would last longer than any fall in supply suggests the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Thailand picked up in Q4, but it is likely to struggle for momentum in the quarters ahead due to weaker external demand. The key risk to the outlook is the possibility of unrest if the... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
