Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Different IMF takes on fiscal policy, Nigeria’s funding gap The IMF’s campaign encouraging governments to broaden fiscal support to prop up recoveries does not seem to extend far and wide. While the Fund appears to be backing a pause in Kenya’s fiscal... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal taps turned off, Spring Festival travel subdued A rush to meet annual spending targets pushed China’s quarterly budget deficit to the second largest on record at the end of 2020. But the government has now turned off the taps. Local government bond... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry’s balancing act, RBI’s opportunity For India watchers, next week will be one of the most important of the year. We think the Finance Ministry will attempt to demonstrate prudence in the Union Budget on Monday, though obfuscation of the... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal policy cocktails of 2021 Governments across Sub-Saharan Africa seem to have mixed plans for fiscal policy this year. There are signs that policymakers in some countries – including Nigeria, Ghana and perhaps Kenya – will... 28th January 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to signal willingness to accommodate fiscal boost Incoming President Job Biden signed a flurry of executive orders during his first couple of days in office, but it remains to be seen whether the divided Senate will support his broader agenda... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Premature end of fiscal support a risk to the recovery The main risks to the outlook for emerging markets this year relate to virus developments and vaccine rollout. The more traditional macro risks are smaller, but one going under the radar in a few... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
Japan Economics Update Review unlikely to herald major policy changes Despite the headwind from the third virus wave, the Bank of Japan revised up its growth forecasts for the next couple of fiscal years. And while Governor Kuroda didn’t provide much insight into what... 21st January 2021 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack The benefits and costs of tighter NBFC regulation The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to tighten regulation of non-bank financial companies (NBFCs) over the coming weeks. Alongside stricter audits of many smaller lenders, the RBI is likely to... 21st January 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) On the official figures, China’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years last quarter. The monthly data suggest that growth dropped back slightly heading into 2021 but it remains strong. We... 18th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
