China Economics Weekly Policymaker silence, festival spending, the Ox & GDP Years of the Ox aren't typically bullish for China's economy. 2021 will be different, but recent inaction by both the Finance Ministry and People’s Bank points to a withdrawal of policy support that... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Another look at Brazil’s fiscal problem The discussion in Brazil around extending emergency fiscal support reinforces our view that the government will ultimately cast aside the spending cap. That could put the public debt trajectory onto... 17th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore to keep fiscal taps running Singapore today unveiled a budget that will keep fiscal policy loose for the coming fiscal year (April 2021-March 2022), while also attempting to address some of the long-term challenges facing the... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook COVID legacy will be higher debt, not weaker growth We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note... 12th February 2021 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers will keep a lid on borrowing costs Indian yields rose significantly in the aftermath of the unexpectedly-accommodative Union Budget announcement but developments since - including a ramping up of open market operations - have helped to... 11th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Spain set for short-term gains, but long-term pain Spain’s economy had been set for a bright 2021 as the vaccine offered hope of a bumper summer tourism season. But the poor start to the rollout means that is now looking less likely. Moreover, the... 10th February 2021 · 21 mins read
Global Economics Update How supportive will fiscal policy be this year? One threat to economic recoveries this year is that governments withdraw their generous fiscal support too quickly. So far, that threat does not seem to be an imminent one. That said, the level of... 9th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the greenback’s rebound The US dollar has started 2021 on the front foot and, while we still think that it will eventually resume its downward trend, the risks around that forecast have shifted in favour of the currency. 8th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Fiscal concerns key for Brazil’s sovereign bonds & real We think that concerns about the commitment of Brazil’s government to fiscal sustainability will intensify over the next two years and weigh on its sovereign bonds and the real. WEBINAR INVITE: To... 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today but committed to keeping policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. We no longer expect any more rate cuts, but markets are... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Taper talk a prelude to bigger policy debate Talk of tapering in recent weeks has been premature and we suspect that most major central banks will keep up asset purchases at their current pace for the rest of the year. Assuming that tapering... 4th February 2021 · 15 mins read
India Data Response India Services & Composite PMI (Jan.) India’s PMI readings for January suggest that the economy is still rebounding and, with fiscal policy finally being loosened significantly, a decent recovery over the coming quarters looks a stronger... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect loose monetary policy to keep a lid on bond yields The RBA’s decision earlier today to extend its bond purchases, despite considerable improvement in the economic outlook, is just the latest sign that major central banks are likely to take a much more... 2nd February 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update A more credible Union Budget By bringing large off-balance sheet expenditures back into official spending plans and setting more realistic targets for revenues, the Finance Ministry has presented a more credible Union Budget for... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update At last, the Finance Ministry breaks the shackles India’s Finance Ministry set aside the desire for near-term fiscal consolidation and today announced significant stimulus in the FY21/222 union budget. That should support the economic recovery over... 1st February 2021 · 4 mins read
