Japan Economics Focus Shrinking BoJ balance sheet won’t have big impact While the Bank of Japan’s JGB holdings have started to shrink and will continue to do so now that Yield Curve Control is over, we think that the normalisation of the Bank’s balance sheet could take up... 26th March 2024 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population growth to plunge The government’s plan to cut temporary resident numbers over 2025 to 2027 will result in the weakest three years for population growth in Canada’s 157-year history. While it might not be enough to... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa... 25th March 2024 · 20 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand... 25th March 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Your latest monetary policy questions answered We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for monetary policy following the US Fed and Bank of England policy meetings and comments by the ECB’s Christine Lagarde. (See a... 25th March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Inflation: From too high to too low After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI... 25th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in... 22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy support a temporary prop to construction Local government financing vehicles are ramping up land purchases to build more public housing, while developers are being given more financing to accelerate work on unfinished projects. This may... 22nd March 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rates preview: Nigeria to hike, South Africa to hold The South African Reserve Bank looks set to leave interest rates on hold at 8.25% next week and it now seems an easing cycle won’t begin until after May’s election, the outcome of which could even... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opens door a little further to June rate cut The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Stars aligning for a June interest rate cut The surprise fall in February leaves CPI inflation on track to average 2.8% this quarter, well below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 3.2%. As the decline in inflation pressures was broad-based, there... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE preparing the ground for interest rate cuts Two key developments at this week’s Bank of England policy meeting implied the Bank is shifting closer to cutting interest rates. And more striking were the comments by the Bank Governor in an... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q1 stagnation, rate cut in June likely but not done deal Christine Lagarde’s comments this week suggest that a first ECB rate cut in June remains most likely but there is a significant risk that the easing cycle will start later. Meanwhile, surveys released... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024) GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here... 22nd March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central bank... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
