Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold, although easing could come soon While Egypt’s central bank kept rates on hold today, the government’s progress towards securing a deal with the IMF means that the easing cycle could start sooner rather than later. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Positive reaction to ECB could prove short-lived The confirmation that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds looks encouraging at face value. But the details reveal that the Bank has not upped its policy... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economy to prompt more stimulus by end of year The MPC’s decision to leave policy on hold today was unsurprising and may partly have reflected a desire to wait to see what comes out of today’s ECB meeting. We still expect more asset purchases to... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s policy conundrum Policymakers in Russia are likely to find themselves in something of a bind over the coming months – while growth is starting to slow, inflation looks set to accelerate. For now it seems that... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on hold this year, but rate cut likely in 2013 Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept its policy rate on hold today at 3%, as was widely expected. The economy has shaken off the global slowdown better than almost any in Asia, meaning there is little... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate cut on the cards for next month Today’s post-MPC press conference gave the clearest sign yet that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is set to start cutting interest rates in order to counter the recent downturn in the economy. We... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank persists with tightening bias The Bank of Canada continues to insist that its policy rate will eventually need to rise from the current 1.0%, even as the global economic slowdown intensifies and the domestic housing boom shows... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed poised to launch QE3 It now seems highly likely that the Fed will launch a third round of large-scale asset purchases (QE3) at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday 13th September. We expect QE3 to... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand still likely to loosen monetary policy The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 3.0% today, as was widely expected. Healthy domestic demand is cushioning the blow from soft exports, but we think persistent global weakness will... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: second-half recovery looks like wishful thinking Despite government efforts to stimulate the economy, there is scant evidence of a rebound in Argentine growth. Rampant inflation is eating into real wage growth and squeezing household spending, while... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Latest figures compound fiscal dilemma The poor run of public borrowing figures and growing calls for the Government to do more to support the economy have intensified the fiscal dilemma facing the Chancellor. 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) August’s ISM manufacturing index gives the Fed another green light to launch QE3 next week. Such action is warranted, but it won’t dramatically alter the economic landscape. 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing weakens further in August The industrial slowdown which began in the second quarter has accelerated and is affecting advanced and emerging economies alike. GDP is likely to contract in the euro-zone and Japan in Q3, while... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Prospect of QE3 whets investors' appetite The prospect of further unconventional policy stimulus from the Fed and a summer lull in the euro-zone crisis supported risky assets in August. Nonetheless, we expect any extra boost to prices from... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Dismal growth picture suggests more stimulus likely With the £50bn of extra asset purchases announced in July still underway, there is no immediate pressure on the MPC to do more this month. Nonetheless, the increasing sense of gloom about the UK’s... 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
