Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate cuts later in the year The Central Bank of Chile (BCC) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.0% last night, however the accompanying statement was a little more dovish in tone than in recent months. We continue to... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumer spending unlikely to stage strong recovery Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is monetary policy too loose for Germany? This Update addresses the question of whether monetary policy is now too loose for Germany and, if so, what can be done about it? While there are various policies that could be adopted at the national... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further Turkish rate cut in the pipeline We think the Turkish central bank (CBRT) will follow up today’s 50bp cut in interest rates with a further 25bp cut over the coming months. But policymakers may also continue to offset the impact of... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rate cuts to come soon While central banks across much of the emerging world are cutting interest rates, high inflation prevented the Central Bank of Russia from doing so today, in spite of the weakness of the economy... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumer confidence falters on inflation fears Japan’s equity markets may still be gripped by euphoria, but the recovery in consumer confidence faltered in April. This coincided with a jump in inflation expectations in the wake of the Bank of... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What negative rates would mean for euro-zone neighbours As a result of ultra-loose monetary policy in major economies, central banks in smaller countries such as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are struggling to deal with both rising private debt... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency to play bigger role in Mexican interest rate decisions The Mexican economy has hit a soft patch in recent months, but we would caution against being too pessimistic. Growth is likely to accelerate in the second half of the year as inflation pressures... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr. 13) April’s retail sales data provided the strongest sign yet that households have largely shrugged off January’s tax hikes. This is perhaps partly due to the recent plunge in gasoline prices, which has... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Still subdued in April Today’s data releases suggest that domestic demand remains weak despite a strong expansion in credit in recent months. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates to stay on hold for the rest of this year Last night’s central bank meeting in Peru offered little to suggest that policymakers are considering a near-term change in interest rates. Going forward, we expect the monetary policy bias to shift... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt refrains from hiking interest rates The Egyptian central bank’s decision to hold interest rates today came as a surprise, but with the country still on the brink of a full-blown balance-of-payments crisis we would not be surprised if... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Waiting for Carney The Monetary Policy Committee’s continued inaction shows it has limited appetite for helping the economy to break out of its current insipid state. Upon his arrival in July, Mark Carney may have his... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts in Korea likely by year-end The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut interest rates today amid fears over the strength of the global economy and concerns about the weakness of the Japanese yen against the won. Low inflation means... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cut in Polish rates looks likely Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, Governor Belka was guarded in his comments about whether further policy easing is on the cards. But with inflation likely to fall further below the Bank... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will be forced into a cut by end-2013 The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
