Emerging Europe Economics Focus Czech National Bank not yet out of options The Czech National Bank is likely to cut interest rates to a fresh record low later this week. But it is quickly running out of room for conventional policy responses to lift the economy out of... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan growth to pick up but vulnerabilities persist Q2 GDP data for Kenya, due to be released this week, are likely to show a pick-up in growth from Q1, and we expect further acceleration in the second half of the year. However, the country remains... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE3 may dwarf other central bank policies The sheer size of the Fed’s QE3 policy becomes even more apparent when it is compared to the policies of other central banks. Although we doubt that QE3 will set the US economy alight, the greater... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus QE3 unlikely to halt the underperformance of EM equities Emerging market equities are on course to underperform developed market equities for the second year in a row. We think this pattern is likely to continue through the end of 2013 even as the Fed... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will higher commodity prices offset the benefits of QE3? The recent decline in oil prices supports our view that a third round of quantitative easing from the US Fed is unlikely to cause global inflation to take off. Unfortunately, the boost to economic... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rate cut still possible in November Although the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, we think that rate cuts could be back on the agenda as early as November this year. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q3 growth may be weakest in two years August’s raft of activity data confirm that the Russian economy is running out of steam – in the first two months of Q3 growth appears to have slowed to its weakest pace in two years. With limited... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ easing welcome but will not succeed in capping yen The Bank of Japan surprised markets today with a move that gave the impression of co-ordinated easing by the major global central banks, providing a welcome boost to confidence. However, we had... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Sep.) September’s MPC minutes did little to diminish the prospects of further policy stimulus over the coming months. We continue to expect further asset purchases to be announced at November’s meeting. 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Nigeria still in wait and see mode The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today and is likely to stay in wait and see mode over the coming months as the effects of a spike in global food prices feed... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is QE3 a success after all? The early evidence suggests that the Fed’s latest policy actions have already started to have their desired effect on financial markets. But there are large question marks over whether these moves... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey steps into easing mode, but impact likely to be limited Today’s cut in the Turkish overnight lending rate is partly cosmetic and the impact on domestic demand is likely to be limited. We wouldn’t rule out a few more steps to narrow the “interest rate... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB follow the Fed? With the launch of QE3, the Federal Reserve has clearly trumped the ECB’s conditional pledge to make sterilised bond purchases. Similar action is warranted in the euro-zone and technically feasible... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 12) The annual growth rates of the various broad money aggregates have slowed recently, but they will accelerate again as the Fed restarts its quantitative easing, this time purchasing $40bn of mortgage... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil "QE" debate masks deeper policy challenge Claims that large-scale foreign currency purchases have caused the Brazilian Central Bank to unwittingly engage in a form of quantitative easing are wide of the mark. But it does seem that during 2010... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian government bites the bullet on reforms Friday’s decision to liberalise foreign investment goes some way to dispel the impression of policy paralysis in Delhi. However, implementation of these reforms will be slow, and further measures are... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
