Canada Economics Update Monetary policy to remain highly accommodative Governor Stephen Poloz's debut public speech, which focused on the fragile global recovery and lack of business confidence, touched on our long-held concerns about Canada's economic recovery and why... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Jun.) June’s MPC minutes confirmed that the outgoing Governor Mervyn King was outvoted at his final meeting and that appetite on the majority of the Committee for more policy stimulus remains muted. However... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's easing cycle probably at an end The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today probably marks the end of the easing cycle. In fact, policymakers have already tightened monetary conditions in recent weeks... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Broad money growth has remained stable since late last year, with our measure of the M3 aggregate expanding by 6.2% over the 12 months to May. 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is the end of ample “cheap money” nigh? The prospect that the US Fed may start to taper its asset purchases later this year has raised concerns that the era of “cheap money” may soon be ending, undermining global asset prices and economic... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rupee weakness complicates India's policy outlook Growing concern about the rupee’s decline and lingering worries about inflation appear to have been the key factors in the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7.25%... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed responding to improving economic outlook It now appears that GDP growth will slow to around 1.8% in the second quarter, but we should see a pick-up in the second half of this year. The slowdown is probably a delayed reaction to the tax hikes... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The slight drop in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence to 82.7 in June, from 84.5, reversed only part of the sharp gain of May. While the details of the report point to solid... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile still on track to lower interest rates this year Chile’s central bank (BCC) held its interest rate at 5% last night, in spite of weaker growth and inflation data which had led some analysts (including ourselves) to forecast a cut. Going forward... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May 13) May’s retail sales figures revealed some tentative signs that households are getting over January’s tax hikes and may be starting to spend some of the cash freed up by the recent fall in gasoline... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower interest rates not a panacea to Russia’s problems There are signs that pressure from the Russian government on both the central bank and commercial banks to lower interest rates may be starting to have an impact on borrowing costs in the real economy... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rest of Asia unlikely to follow Indonesia's tightening path Bank Indonesia’s unexpected decision to hike its main policy rate today reflects concern about recent downward pressure on the rupiah and worries over the inflation outlook. Further hikes will follow... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand will remain reluctant to hike rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today. We continue to expect the cash rate to remain on hold until the end of the year and to be kept low in 2014. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Ahead of the taper We don't expect the Fed to begin curbing its asset purchases from the current pace of $85bn per month at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (19th June). The economic data simply... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
