Europe Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank’s economic forecasts still look too optimistic The Swedish Riksbank left interest rates unchanged at 1.0% today and signalled that it still expects to begin raising rates in late 2014. However, we still think that the Bank’s economic forecasts are... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will consumers drive a recovery after all? Growth in consumer spending has been one of the few bright spots for the economy over the past year. But we doubt a continued consumer recovery will be that strong, at least in the near-term. In any... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan easing cycle has probably ended Given that credit growth remains sluggish, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in Uganda over the next few months. But on balance, a combination of a pick-up in food... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus All you need to know about the Fed’s exit strategy The Fed’s exit strategy is a work in progress that will be determined by the economic data and the evolution of the Fed’s thinking on the costs of unwinding its ultra-loose monetary policies. But we... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A few more rate cuts to come in Romania Today’s cut in Romanian interest rates is likely to be followed by further policy easing over the coming months. However, the scope for aggressive loosening is limited by the country’s high level of... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch New Governor to hit the ground running Despite the recent improvement in the economic data, there is still a strong case for the new Governor Mark Carney to give the economy additional support in order to boost the chances of the recovery... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Forward guidance might benefit economy The recent rise in rate expectations and bond yields might prompt the Bank of Canada to consider providing some concrete forward guidance in its next policy statement. While the Bank need not go as... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further slight rise in consumer confidence will raise hopes that the consumer spending recovery could be gathering momentum. But we doubt that any recovery can be sustained while real pay is still... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A brief primer on China's interbank market China’s cash crunch has shone a spotlight on its interbank market, which investors without a close interest in China’s banking and financial sector previously paid little attention to. In this month’s... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How far can the Bank of Japan's QE replace the Fed's? Japanese investors are perhaps more likely to follow global trends than to lead them, but the Bank of Japan will help keep global monetary conditions loose even when the Fed starts to taper QE3. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can Carney save the day? The recent rise in interest rate expectations and gilt yields has boosted the case for Mr Carney to start on a strong note by introducing forward guidance and resuming quantitative easing. Bold action... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending recovery built on fragile foundations Today’s news on the state of households’ finances shows that consumer spending is continuing to rise despite falling real incomes. But that this is only being achieved by a sharp fall in saving... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Still mulling more support; exit remains distant With the news that the US Fed is set to taper its QE programme hitting euro-zone financial markets, President Draghi should provide reassurance about ongoing ECB policy support at the forthcoming... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The increase in Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a five-and-a-half-year high of 81.4 in June, from 74.3, was quite surprising given that the usual determinants of sentiment didn't... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
