Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift policy rate this month The Bank of Japan has signalled that it will raise rates at its January meeting. And with inflation set to remain above the Bank’s 2% target for a while yet, we’re sticking to our forecast that the... 16th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2024) 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire The ceasefire reportedly agreed between Israel and Hamas is likely to have significant consequences for some countries in the region, notably Israel itself as well as Jordan and Egypt. But the... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Rising yields risk macro fallout If sustained, rising bond yields add to downside risks to economic growth. The potential direct effects on real activity are greatest in the US. But higher yields in other DMs could limit how far... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Russian inflation to 9.5% y/y in December is likely to be followed by an increase to more than 10% early this year. The central bank has set a high bar for further tightening but we think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has b een updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the... 15th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, amid continued concerns about the inflation outlook and the direction of fiscal policy post-election. We think... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec '24.) The further rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 34.8% y/y in December, raises the risk that the central bank pushes ahead with one last interest rate hike at their next meeting in February... 15th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Can India’s policymakers bring the good times back? 28th January 2025, 9:00AM GMT For so long the darling of global investors, India’s economy and financial markets have hit a sticky patch of late.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) While a lot of the surprisingly large fall in services inflation from 5.0% in November to 4.4% in December (CE forecast 4.8%, BoE 4.7%) was due to a very sharp fall in airfares inflation, underlying... 15th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The case for below-neutral rates in Australia It’s possible that prolonged weakness in economic activity and a jump in unemployment force the RBA to cut rates more aggressively than we’re anticipating. However, a more likely scenario resulting in... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What could policymakers do in response to higher gilt yields? Our base case is that a stabilisation and eventual fall back in gilt yields will allow the government to muddle through and wait until the next fiscal event on 26th March before making any decisions... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if... 13th January 2025 · 1 min read
