Emerging Europe Economics Update Low inflation to keep Czech monetary policy loose The weakness of Czech inflation prompted the National Bank’s MPC to strike a slightly more dovish tone at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference. The strengthening economic recovery means... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB pauses for breath Following its surprise hike in January, the recent rally in the rand enabled the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates on hold today. But the bigger picture is that, with South... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines holds policy rate, but first hike not far off Although the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) opted to keep the overnight rate on hold at a record low of just 3.5% at its meeting today, it hiked its reserve requirement ratio by 1pp, suggesting... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan's central bank under little pressure to hike rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates on hold today, as was widely expected. The economy is performing better, but with inflation set to remain subdued we expect the CBC to keep interest... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates may be on hold until 2016 Although the Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today, the Bank may yet need to push back its first projected interest rate hike from mid-2015 to 2016. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further rate cuts in Hungary now look unlikely Following the cut in interest rates in Hungary earlier today, the MPC gave the clearest signal yet that the easing cycle has come to an end. Policymakers did not completely close the door on further... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: modest interest rate hikes on the cards In its first MPC meeting since the suspension of Governor Lamido Sanusi, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today. The case for conventional tightening is building... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish central bank unlikely to tolerate further krone falls The fall in the Danish krone to its weakest level against the euro since early 2006 has increased speculation that Denmark’s central bank will have to respond to maintain the krone’s peg. We agree... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mind the (spuriously precise) gap The fact that members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are advancing personal estimates of the output gap expressed to the nearest 0.1% suggests that policymakers may be putting too much... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today's weak PMI reading is the latest sign that slowing credit and investment growth are weighing on domestic demand. That said, with no sign of stress in the labour market, the slowdown does not yet... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Demographics to weigh on economic growth and interest rates In his speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz argued that the legacy of the financial crisis and demographic changes can explain Canada's recent lacklustre economic performance. More... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen wrong to downplay Fed's rate projections We didn't think new Fed Chair Janet Yellen's admission that "considerable period" meant six months or so warranted the subsequent equity sell-off. It simply confirmed what we already knew, that the... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish central bank unlikely to tolerate further krone falls The fall in the Danish krone to its weakest level against the euro since early 2006 has increased speculation that Denmark’s central bank will have to respond to maintain the krone’s peg. We agree... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed to continue winding down QE steadily As expected, the Fed announced a further reduction in its monthly asset purchases this month meaning it remains on course to end QE in the final quarter of the year. Nonetheless, it will still be... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB's battle with deflation goes on The combination of a sluggish economic recovery, very low inflation and a still strong currency will keep the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in very accommodative mode for the foreseeable future. 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s outlook still healthy, despite Q4 slowdown New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q4, largely owing to the fading impact of the recovery from a drought that hit the country in the first half of last year. Broader indicators suggest the economy is in... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
