Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) The minutes of October’s MPC meeting showed that the views of those voting to keep interest rates on hold have becoming more entrenched. As such, we have pushed back our forecast for the first rise in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB takes further steps towards QE Rumours that the ECB is considering corporate bond purchases suggest that the Bank is edging further into the realms of quantitative easing. But we think that it will need to buy sovereign bonds as... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Tighter policy in Ghana to lead to further growth slowdown While Ghana’s authorities continue discussions with the IMF about a possible programme, the macroeconomic situation in the country appears to be getting worse. We suspect that the eventual tightening... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed shouldn’t respond to lower inflation expectations Since the recent fall in US inflation expectations is solely being driven by the decline in oil prices, it won’t prevent the Fed from ending QE3 or raising interest rates next year. 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to have bigger implications for ECB than Fed The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s new president has his work cut out Joko Widodo, the outgoing mayor of Jakarta, who takes over as Indonesia’s president on Monday, is seen by some as the man to turn the country’s fortunes around. But while he has attracted plenty of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More monetary easing needed to offset fiscal drag Japan is emerging from its second-quarter slump but weak household consumption and business investment, combined with further fiscal austerity, are likely to keep domestic demand sluggish. What’s more... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts still likely in Chile Interest rates in Chile were cut by 25bp to 3.00% last night and, although the accompanying statement suggests that we may be nearing the end of the easing cycle, we expect further cuts over the next... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Working nine to nine? Rapid growth in the UK’s workforce in spite of both demographic and international trends has been crucial to sustaining the economic recovery and preventing it from stoking inflation. Looking ahead... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates left unchanged as recovery trumps high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates on hold today came as little surprise. Inflation remains high but policymakers are undoubtedly wary of tightening monetary policy due to... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank sitting on the fence At next week's policy meeting we expect the Bank of Canada to remain neutral on the direction and timing of the next move in its policy rate. Although core inflation has rebounded sooner than the Bank... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Today’s cut should mark the end of the loosening cycle in Korea Today’s 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea (BoK) takes the main policy rate back to the all-time low last seen during the global financial crisis. But with growth set to accelerate... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) While bank lending continues to expand robustly, credit in aggregate is growing less rapidly. In fact, household debt reached a fresh low relative to output in Q2. 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s sharp fall in consumer price inflation supports those members of the Monetary Policy Committee arguing that there is still no hurry to raise interest rates. 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
