Japan Economics Weekly Is Kurodanomics working? The Bank of Japan has become much more aggressive since Mr. Kuroda took over a year ago. The central bank’s “shock and awe” approach is a welcome departure from the gradualist ways of previous... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rate hikes still a distant prospect With inflation falling faster and slack in the labour market being used up more slowly than the MPC expected in February’s Inflation Report, the decision to leave Bank Rate on hold at this month’s... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Sales tax hike alone unlikely to prompt further stimulus The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the first of this month’s two Board meetings on Tuesday (8th), despite the hit to GDP from the... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB edging towards more action Although the ECB left policy on hold again today, President Draghi turned his dovish rhetoric up a further notch. With the economic recovery set to remain too weak to diminish the threat of deflation... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes but hints that tightening cycle now over Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates last night, but changes to the accompanying statement suggest this could be the final increase in this tightening cycle. Nonetheless, with inflation once... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s tightening cycle not over yet The Bank of Ghana kept interest rates on hold at 18.0% today, but rising inflation and a rapidly weakening currency mean that rates are still likely to be hiked again before the end of this year. We... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) & FPC Record (Mar.) Although March’s CIPS manufacturing report indicated that the sector’s recovery may have lost some steam over the first quarter, this seems unlikely to herald the beginning of a renewed slowdown. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rates set to remain at a standstill The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left interest rates unchanged today, and we suspect that its rate hiking cycle is at an end. However, tackling inflation is still the RBI's main priority, which means... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for a while yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, amid signs that the non-mining economy continues to improve. Policy loosening remains off the agenda for now, but we still think... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Taken at face value, today's PMIs appear to offer conflicting messages. In practice however, their divergence provides useful clues into the state of the manufacturing sector, suggesting that large... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) February’s money and lending figures provide further reassurance that the economic recovery has maintained its strong pace this year and is not being powered by a surge in credit. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers signal preference for “fine-tuning” over stimulus With the People's Bank pushing interbank rates higher and senior figures ruling out significant fiscal and monetary loosening, market hopes of a stimulus package for China are likely to be... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian easing cycle at an end The deterioration in the inflation outlook and concerns about triggering a sell-off in the currency caused the National Bank of Romania to bring its easing cycle to an end. But, barring a sharp fall... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How useful are central banks' own interest rate forecasts? The Fed’s recent changes to its forward guidance mean that market participants are likely to scrutinise interest rate forecasts by Fed officials more closely than they have done in the past. However... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB Watch - More policy action still ahead Developments over the last month have not clearly met either of the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action. Nonetheless, the ongoing danger of deflation and dovish signals from several... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our non-consensus calls At first sight, many of our views now look close to the consensus. However, this is typically because other analysts have swung round to our long-held positions, which have mostly been proved right... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
