Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.) The drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of the month suggests that the sharp fall in the peso is still having little impact on domestic price pressures. While the recent sell-off in the... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Don’t bet on further big falls in the Canadian dollar Markets still appear to be speculating on further declines in the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar but, after a 20% decline over the past 12 months, we believe that there is little scope for any... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed has set a pretty low bar for a rate hike The projections made by Fed officials back in June indicated that they were setting a pretty low bar for hiking interest rates later this year. Nevertheless, despite those low expectations, officials... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek election adds to bailout implementation risks Prime Minister Tsipras’ decision to call an election threw the Greek situation back into disarray only hours after he secured Greece’s first bailout payment last week. Tsipras should win, perhaps with... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) Although July's annual core inflation rate nudged up to 2.4% from 2.3%, the Bank of Canada likely couldn't care less. With the economy in a mild recession and falling oil and other industrial... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A missed opportunity The monsoon session of parliament, which concluded last week, has ended up being one of the biggest disappointments of Prime Minister Modi’s tenure so far, with virtually no progress made on pushing... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still room for revision of rate expectations in EM bond market Local currency government bonds have been a port in the emerging market (EM) storm during the past year, as investors have revised down their expectations for policy rates. While they are now... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) Norway’s Q2 GDP data showed that lower energy prices continued to weigh on the oil and gas sector. But the mainland economy also slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The very muted 0.1% m/m gains in both headline and core CPI in July will certainly give the Fed pause for thought in whether to raise interest rates or not at the next FOMC meeting in mid September... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Dong devaluation not part of Asian currency war Although today’s decision by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to devalue the dong by a further 1% against the US dollar and widen the trading band was in part linked to China’s devaluation of the... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout approved, but implementation doubtful The German Parliament’s approval of the third Greek bailout should prompt payments allowing Greece to narrowly avoid default yet again. But Grexit risks have not disappeared and are likely to flare up... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland’s tightening cycle has further to run Today’s rate hike by Iceland’s central bank is likely to be part of a sustained tightening cycle to counter strong domestic demand growth and inflationary pressures. And we think further rate... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the falls: where next for EM currencies? The most recent declines in emerging market currencies have been driven by renewed falls in global commodity prices, China’s ‘devaluation’ of the renminbi, and worries about the prospect of monetary... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
