UK Data Response UK financial system coping well with uncertainty While the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) suggested that the UK financial system has fared well during recent uncertainty, it highlighted lingering risks. Nonetheless, we think that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Kenyan & Ugandan Consumer Prices (Nov.) The surprise acceleration of inflation in Kenya and Uganda raises a risk to our view that both countries central banks will loosen policy. But we expect that rates will still fall. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Talk of rate hikes is premature The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to play either Santa or Scrooge at its meeting on Tuesday 6th December, as it will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5%. And we believe that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong dollar making life hard for the PBOC The renminbi’s depreciation against the US dollar quickened in November, with the Chinese currency reaching fresh multi-year lows against its US counterpart. We expect it to breach 7.0 against the US... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate cut until early next year The rebound in third-quarter GDP likely means that the Bank of Canada will leave its economic projections and policy interest rate unchanged next Wednesday. But policymakers will still have doubts... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong earnings push equity markets to ten-month high Chinese equities extended their rally in November, hitting the highest since January. The renminbi fell to an eight-year low against the US dollar, but strengthened against the trade-weighted basket... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will Trump’s victory affect global monetary policy? With President Trump set to implement a large fiscal stimulus next year, US inflation and interest rates will both rise more rapidly than seemed likely a month ago. This has already had knock-on... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon Interbank interest rates in Saudi Arabia have edged down over the past month as investor sentiment towards the Kingdom has improved and policy moves have helped to ease liquidity constraints at banks... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Oct.) Chilean activity data for October were slightly worse than expected and suggest that the economy got off to a disappointing start in Q4. They’re probably not enough to convince the central bank to... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates on hold, but hikes in the pipeline The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept rates on hold at its meeting today, but with credit growing at an unsustainable pace, inflationary pressures building, and the US Federal Reserve set to... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Policy loosening will proceed gradually The Central Bank of Kenya has paused its loosening cycle for now, but further cuts are likely in 2017. We expect that the bank’s key policy rate will end 2017 at 9.00%. 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will lower rates give the housing market another boost? Interest rates are an important driver of housing demand, but they are not the only factor. And restricted access to mortgage credit, rather than its cost, is currently actin as the biggest drag on... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s pound float: short-term pain, long-term gain The 50% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar since the central bank floated the currency at the start of November will cause economic growth to slow sharply in the coming quarters... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone money and credit data remain consistent with steady economic growth. But a renewed pick-up in money and lending growth will be needed before the ECB can feel comfortable about... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
