Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals rate hike in August The hawkish tone of today’s post-meeting statement and press conference supports our non-consensus view that the first interest rate hike in the Czech Republic will come at August’s MPC meeting... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s rise in German HICP inflation and a sharper fall in the Spanish rate suggest that euro-zone inflation probably edged down from May’s 1.4%. German core inflation is now rising, but underlying... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to press on with hikes; others in no hurry to follow We still think the US Fed is likely to raise interest rates two more times this year and to start gradually shrinking its balance sheet in Q4. But the ECB will probably not start tapering its asset... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro continue to climb? We think that the euro’s latest rise against the US dollar was a justified reaction to Mario Draghi’s hints that QE will be tapered early next year, despite warnings from the ECB that the comments... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is below-target inflation in Norway a problem? The Norges Bank’s latest projections suggest that it is unwilling, or unable, to loosen policy by enough to hit its inflation target. This will weigh on economic growth over the coming years, and... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to drop easing bias Since the Riksbank last met in April, underlying inflation has been stronger than expected, international political risks have diminished and economic conditions in Sweden’s trading partners have... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit in the FPC’s sights The publication today of the Financial Stability Report revealed that while the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee is fairly sanguine about the resilience of the financial system as a whole... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate hikes a long way off despite improving labour market The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.50% when it meets on Tuesday 4 th July. And while the sustained improvement in the labour market in recent... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual The sharp drop in Argentine inflation to an 18-month low in May is likely to prompt the central bank to shift into easing mode over the coming quarters. But with core inflation likely to be slow to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the rift between MPC members growing? After a surprisingly large split in the vote at June’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, two speeches this week provided further signs of a growing rift on the Committee. Indeed, the fact that Andy... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates on hold, but further hikes can’t be ruled out Sri Lanka’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, and the less hawkish tone of the statement suggests the central bank’s tightening cycle may be nearing an end. We are changing our forecast... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly All Blacks to beat British Lions in economic tests If the relative performance of the economies of New Zealand and the UK/Ireland over the next few years is anything to go by, the All Blacks will beat the British & Irish Lions 2-1 in the rugby test... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central bankers will stick to 2% inflation targets for now Janet Yellen’s remarks about the case for reconsidering the Fed’s inflation target have generated some attention this week. But in practice, there is little prospect of the inflation target being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Subdued inflation means interest rates in Taiwan will remain low With the economy experiencing a steady recovery and inflationary pressures still very subdued, it was no surprise that Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No change in sight for Philippines rates Today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% was widely expected. But while the consensus among analysts is that the BSP will hike rates... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway rate cut off the table, but a long way from rate hikes The Norges Bank revised up its forecast for interest rates this year, so a cut now looks unlikely. But while the Bank expects to raise its policy rate in 2019, we think that it will be unchanged until... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
