Japan Economics Weekly How will the Bank of Japan react to cheaper oil? The Bank of Japan will probably lower its inflation forecasts and push back the timing for reaching its 2% target yet again later this month. With cheaper energy keeping a lid on inflation, the recent... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further decline in Mexican inflation in December, to 2.1% y/y, underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. Against this backdrop, we expect only modest monetary tightening in 2016... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC stresses risks from loose fiscal policy Romanian National Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu gave little away at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, but the tone of the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC is concerned about... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Will 2016 be the year when interest rates finally rise? The fall in oil prices, a souring in global market sentiment, weaker wage data and some unfavourable revisions to GDP growth suggest that the chances of rates not rising until the second half of the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Food and fuel inflation on the rise Inflation is likely to have risen in December on account of accelerating food inflation and the government’s incremental hiking of fuel duties even as global oil prices continue to slump. Further... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long can the PBOC hold on? The willingness of the People’s Bank to sell over $100bn of foreign exchange reserves last month is a measure of its belief that a stable currency is in China’s interests and that current downward... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of renewed intervention in China Renewed intervention by the authorities in China may not be enough to prevent further falls in local equity markets, but even in the event of a sell-off the macroeconomic consequences should be small... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2016 In our first India Watch of 2016, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. The lagged effect of earlier policy loosening and weakness in global commodity prices should... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A year of zero inflation December’s euro-zone consumer price inflation rate of +0.2% left an average inflation rate for 2015 as a whole of zero – the lowest rate since the single currency was formed. Headline inflation will... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Brazil In response to the deepening economic and political crisis in Brazil we are marking down some of our key forecasts. We now expect interest rates to be raised further, the currency to weaken a little... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) December’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures supported our view that bolder ECB policy action will ultimately be needed to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis. 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda fails to launch in 2015 On the face of it, 2015 has been a decent year for the Indian economy. Admittedly, activity indicators are pointing to a slow and bumpy recovery, but conditions have undoubtedly improved following... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack ASEAN Economic Community is no game changer The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) formally takes effect on 31st December and aims to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, which its supporters hope will one day enable it to... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 15) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 4.6% in November, but M2 growth was still a very healthy 6.2% and, most importantly, the growth rate of bank loans is running at 8.0%. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
