RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ is not done yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% at its next policy meeting on Thursday 9th June. Although we don’t expect the RBNZ to signal this month... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Do negative ECB interest rates lead to higher saving? We disagree with recent suggestions that negative central bank policy rates encourage households to increase their savings, thereby reducing demand and weighing on inflation. In fact, the opposite... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to a Brexit? A Brexit and its after-effects could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to undertake further unconventional policy action, including measures to support the euro-zone’s financial sector, FX... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Delay in sales tax hike brightens outlook for 2017 The delay that has just been confirmed in the sales tax hike will result in economic activity being stronger than would have been the case next year. The decision diminishes pressure on the Bank of... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The surge in GDP in the first quarter means the RBA won’t be in a rush to cut interest rates again. But growth will slow during the rest of this year and we still think that continued low inflation... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The robust growth in bank loans and the monetary aggregates is another reason to believe that second-quarter GDP growth will rebound markedly. The growth rate of our M3 measure accelerated to 4.0% in... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies slide on Fed fears Asian currencies fell back in May following signals from the Federal Reserve that interest rates in the US are likely to be raised this summer. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2016) The pick-up in GDP growth in the first quarter might convince some that the worst effects of the oil price shock are over, but the details showed that business investment fell further, consistent with... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the full effects of the ECB’s expanded stimulus measures will not yet have been felt, we doubt that they will... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Few surprises expected at OPEC meeting This week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna is likely to pass without any major surprises. Policymakers should be a little happier heading into the meeting than they were at the previous one in December –... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets still under-estimating pace of future rate hikes Markets are coming around to the idea that the Fed will raise rates for a second time either next month or in July, but still appear to be unusually sanguine about the prospects of additional rate... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Usual suspects repeating the same old mistakes By keeping monetary policy too loose for too long, Pakistan, Vietnam and Sri Lanka now face either a surge in inflation or a rise in bad debts. What’s more, central banks remain complacent about the... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Non-mining investment failing to fill the hole Although GDP growth in Australia in the first quarter probably at least matched the 0.6% q/q rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the continued disappointment is the failure of non-mining... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to be dovish but stress that ECB can’t do it all The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish tone at its forthcoming policy meeting on 2nd June, forecasting below target inflation and holding open the door to further policy... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
