Emerging Europe Economics Update Sentiment starts to shift on Poland’s MPC The combination of strong growth and rising core inflation has led some members of Poland’s MPC to strike a more hawkish tone in recent months. However, while this is consistent with our view that... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the ECB “normalise” policy? We think that the ECB will taper its asset purchases to zero in the first six months of 2018 and begin raising interest rates in 2019. The euro-zone economy as a whole should continue to perform well... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Weak GDP and inflation data unlikely to sway RBI The weakness of the latest GDP and inflation data has reignited talk that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may loosen at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th June. However, more timely indicators suggest... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy rates to remain low for longer than consensus expects The region’s rate cutting cycle has come to an end, but with inflation set to remain fairly subdued, interest rates are likely to remain low for some time yet. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t panic about housing…at least not yet Most of the recent gloomy headlines on Australia’s housing market are simply because people are mistaking the normal soft patch after the Easter school holidays for something more worrying. When you... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to tweak its forward guidance At its meeting on 8th June, the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance, dropping the references to lower interest rates and expanding QE. But Mr Draghi will want to avoid stoking expectations of... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s decline in euro-zone inflation to a five-month low does not change our view that the ECB will alter its forward guidance next week. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update When will energy inflation peak? We expect energy inflation to peak next quarter and then drop back, providing another challenge to the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reach a 2% inflation target. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC deal renewed, but Saudi nods towards “exit strategy” OPEC’s decision this month to roll over its oil output cuts displayed a rare sense of cohesion from the cartel, but there are signs that de-facto leader Saudi Arabia is seeking an eventual end to... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate hikes remain off the agenda While there is growing evidence that consumption growth has begun to falter, this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 1.5% when it meets on Tuesday... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is the end of QE (finally) in sight? The US Fed is likely to raise interest rates in June and to begin a very gradual process of balance sheet normalisation before the end of the year. But other major central banks are a long way behind... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC tightens the renminbi’s leash The change in the renminbi fixing mechanism announced today shouldn’t rattle markets, not least because it appears to be an attempt to strengthen rather than weaken the currency. It suggests though... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Buoyant euro-zone will help the SNB fight franc strength Given the improvement in the euro-zone’s political and economic outlook and the relative stance of monetary policy, we no longer expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro. But the franc... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC strikes a dovish tone Today’s MPC statement from the governor of the South African Reserve Bank supports our nonconsensus view that policymakers will cut their key policy rate to 6.50% by the end of the year. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans not a big concern News that the Fed will proceed very cautiously in scaling back its huge balance sheet does not change our view that US monetary policy will be tightened more rapidly than the markets anticipate this... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further While the pound could fall again if the economy weakens or Brexit prospects worsen, there are good reasons to think that its recent appreciation can continue. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
