Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect Further sharp falls in Egyptian inflation in the coming months are likely to prompt the central bank to embark on a monetary easing cycle. We expect the benchmark interest rate to be cut to 13.25% by... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A vintage year, but is the best yet to come? The euro-zone economy performed better in 2017 than we and most forecasters had anticipated at the year’s outset. Investment growth picked up despite intense political uncertainty. And while a rise in... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A refresher on China’s monetary policy framework With the People’s Bank last week tweaking the interest rates on its open market operations, it seems timely to highlight some of the peculiarities of China’s monetary policy framework. One key one is... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Weak price pressures will prevent BoJ from tightening A rising number of analysts believe that the BoJ will start tightening policy by the end of next year. But with inflation set to remain below its 2% target, we think that the Bank will keep policy... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes express inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) December policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with consumer... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier economies to strengthen in 2018 Frontier markets have enjoyed a recovery in 2017, with aggregate GDP growth set to reach close to 3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.3% in 2016. Frontiers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa have... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals gradual shift towards tighter policy The Riksbank’s announcement that it will end its net asset purchases this month is the beginning of a shift towards tighter monetary policy in Sweden. We think that it will ultimately raise interest... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold through 2018 With growth robust and inflationary pressures subdued, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.50%. The accompanying monetary policy statement reaffirms our... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should other central banks follow the Fed? There are reasons why the US Federal Reserve should be further along the path to policy normalisation than other major central banks. But there are also reasons why they should not lag too far behind. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook Unsurprisingly December’s uneventful Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting barely caused a ripple in financial markets, leaving market participants’ expectations for future interest rates all but... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2018 In our final Watch of this year, we outline the prospects for India’s economy in 2018. We expect growth to accelerate, due to a pick-up in private consumption as well as looser fiscal policy. However... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rebound will force the Fed to tighten further The subdued November CPI figures and the news that the Fed left its inflation and interest rate projections unchanged triggered a mini-rally in the bond markets, but arguably investors should be... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates to be lowered further than markets expect The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected 50bp today caught the market (and ourselves) by surprise but the scale of the cut, as well as the tone of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone withstand ECB tapering? We think that the euro-zone economic recovery is strong enough to cope with a gradual removal of policy support by the ECB over the coming years. The weak outlook for inflation will allow the ECB to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to be cut further in 2018 Central banks in Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged last night, but both accompanying statements left the door open for further easing. With inflation rising in Chile, the window for cuts is... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
