Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay low Against a backdrop of robust growth and subdued inflation, today’s decision by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 1.50% came as no surprise. The accompanying... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation will resume accelerating soon We think that consumer price inflation held steady in October as a slight rise in food inflation was offset by a drop in fuel inflation. But with core price pressures building, inflation is likely to... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Tightening cycle has much further to run The Romanian MPC’s decision to raise its overnight deposit interest rate represents a move to tighten monetary policy further. And the hawkish post-meeting press statement supports our view that... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA too complacent on households and inflation Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates at 1.5% for the 15 th month today, we don’t think it is placing enough weight on the recent weakening in retail sales and softer news... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s central bank has little room for manoeuvre Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) left rates on hold today, and the accompanying monetary policy statement supports our view that rate changes are not on the horizon. CBSL will be wary of hiking rates... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do ECB bond re-investments mean for yields? Data released by the ECB today imply that a significant volume of its German Bunds will mature next year, which the Bank will re-invest in German assets. But we don’t think that re-investments will... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Oct.) & Swedish Production Index. (Sep.) October’s weak Swiss inflation data support our view that SNB interest rate hikes are a very distant prospect. Elsewhere, Swedish production data suggest that quarterly GDP growth slowed in Q3. 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Has Japan overcome deflation? Suggestions from Japan’s government that it has vanquished deflation are premature when wages are barely rising, core inflation is close to zero and inflation expectations are lower than a few years... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC will become less dovish in time While the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to increase Bank Rate for the first time in a decade was largely priced into financial markets ahead of the November meeting, the Committee struck... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Which assets will the ECB buy in 2018? The ECB’s decision last week to extend its bond-buying well into 2018 means that it will probably need to change the composition of its purchases. After all, it has already had to reduce its purchases... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Powell an underwhelming choice to be Fed Chair Some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them. Jerome Powell belongs in the third category. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Powell to be the next Fed... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Czech tightening cycle unlikely until next year The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting – at which it resumed its tightening cycle via a 25bp hike to the policy rate – was more dovish than we had anticipated. Accordingly, we think that... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC presses ahead with dovish hike The Monetary Policy Committee’s dovish comments and forecasts accompanying the first rise in interest rates for a decade left the markets anticipating only a very modest pace of monetary policy... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Jobs mandate to move the goalposts not change the game The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave interest rates at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 9th November and by adopting a more cautious tone in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement it... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed Policy Announcement (Nov.) The Fed issued a very similar statement at the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting today, which included an upgrade to its assessment of economic growth. On balance, this is a marginally more... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
