Asia Economics Focus Election could make Malaysia’s problems worse Despite facing a resurgent opposition, Prime Minister Najib Razak is favourite to win a third term in a general election due on 9 th May. A victory for Najib would probably lead to a short-term fiscal... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker currencies and higher oil prices boost equities Amid escalating international trade tensions, the Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated across the board in April. Weaker exchange rates helped to give equities a boost, while the main bourses in... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will rising interest rates choke off the expansion? The further rise in 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level since 2011 dominated the markets this week and there are signs that the Fed’s policy tightening is starting to feed through to the... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals rate cuts still on the cards, despite ruble sell-off The sell-off in the ruble caused the Russian central bank (CBR) to pause its easing cycle today, but the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that rates are likely to be lowered... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update 2% inflation target remains out of reach The Bank of Japan today refrained from providing a concrete timeframe for hitting its 2% inflation target for the first time since Governor Kuroda took over. This highlights that policymakers have... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA, the Royal Commission and housing We suspect that a tightening in lending standards as a result of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct will more than offset any further relaxation in APRA’s lending restrictions to leave... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB confident about inflation despite slower growth The ECB opted to leave its policy and guidance unchanged today, expressing caution about the softer tone of economic data. But it argued that growth was merely moderating from a strong pace and... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to keep guidance unchanged, for now The Norges Bank is unlikely to respond to recent weak data by altering its forward guidance next week. But we still think that it will ultimately tighten policy a little more slowly than generally... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank delays interest rate rises The Riksbank now expects interest rates to remain unchanged until Q4. We think that the Bank will raise rates gradually this year and next, before adopting a faster pace of tightening in 2020. 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Rising inflation will prompt faster tightening this year The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with signs that underlying inflationary pressures are continuing to build, officials may use the post-meeting statement... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hike brings only temporary relief for the lira The move by the Turkish MPC to hike its late liquidity rate by 75bp today only brought temporary relief for the lira and suggests that markets are unconvinced about policymakers’ willingness to shore... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: BCRA turns hawkish, policy to stay tight Argentina’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 27.25% last night, but the statement accompanying the decision struck a notably more hawkish tone and suggested that the easing... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Growing less optimistic Despite underlying inflation coming in slightly stronger than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected in the first quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave interest rates at 1.5% at its next policy... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
