Asia Economics Weekly Will regional trade agreements boost growth? Almost 10 months after Donald Trump pulled the US out of negotiations to set up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), ministers from the remaining 11 countries are trying to salvage something from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a major threat to the inflation outlook As a result of the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, CPI inflation will certainly be a bit higher than we had previously anticipated in the near term. This suggests that it won’t be long before the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada likely on hold until well into 2018 Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech earlier this week was too dismissive of the current weakness of underlying inflation, although that isn’t a surprise given the Bank’s interest rate hikes... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely in Peru The decision by Peru’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate – by 25bp to 3.25% – caught most by surprise but was in line with our forecast, and we expect further easing over the coming months... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA admits it will miss its inflation target for two more years The Reserve Bank of Australia admitted in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy that underlying inflation will be below its 2-3% target for a year longer than it previously thought. We have been saying... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Where are Icelandic policy rates heading? Forecasters have been wrong-footed this year by the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) rate cuts. This appears to be because the CBI has started to put more emphasis on a different inflation measure, and... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The pick-up in Mexican inflation last month appears to be due in large part to temporary factors relating to September’s earthquakes. Nevertheless, the data strengthen the case for delaying interest... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Markets underestimating Riksbank rate rises As today’s minutes show few signs that policymakers are concerned about the economy overheating, we have pushed back our forecast for a rate rise to September 2018. But we still expect rates to be... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will the region’s Q3 GDP data look? The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe are likely to show that growth accelerated in most of the region. While the pace of expansion probably softened a touch in... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines likely to keep rates on hold throughout 2018 Despite rising inflation, rapid credit growth and a weak currency the Philippines central bank (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. While the consensus is expecting rate hikes next year... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Oct.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.9% y/y in October was driven entirely by a sharp pick-up in food inflation, and by our estimates, core inflation eased a little. As a result, while... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s central bank turns hawkish Malaysia’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today, but the more hawkish tone of the statement suggests that monetary policy tightening may soon come back onto the agenda. We now... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ gives the new government the thumbs up More interesting than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) having now left interest rates unchanged at 1.75% for a year was the Bank’s verdict on the impact of the new government. It believes that... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer sector in good shape heading into Q4 The monthly data suggest that consumer spending was behind the slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But September’s rise in retail sales provided a strong starting point for Q4. And the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC taking a hawkish turn The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but the post-meeting press release seems to confirm that the Council is becoming more hawkish. We think inflation will rise above target in the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine central bank has more work to do The decision by Argentina’s central bank to follow up last month’s surprise interest rate hike with another increase last night reinforces the view that policymakers are getting tough on inflation. We... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
