India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in July and will be used by the central bank as vindication of its decision to reduce interest rates for the fourth... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen adds to speculation over policy easing The renewed escalation of trade tensions has pushed the yen to a 17-month high against the dollar. We consider it very unlikely that the government will respond by intervening on the foreign exchange... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s loosening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank delivered a (slightly) larger-than-expected rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing. If soft surveys are correct in suggesting that there is limited slack in the... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - 50 basis point cut not the end of easing by the RBNZ The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates dramatically to 1.0% at today’s monetary policy meeting. But given our more pessimistic forecasts of the New Zealand economy, we don’t think that the Bank is... 7th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Intervention wouldn’t prevent yen from strengthening While Japan’s government will almost certainly refrain from direct intervention on the foreign exchange markets to stem the recent appreciation of the yen, we can’t rule out that the government’s... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not done easing yet The RBA adopted an easing bias when it left interest rates unchanged today. With the labour market set to loosen further, we expect the Bank to slash rates to 0.5% by early-2020. 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) The sharp fall in the unemployment rate is unlikely to prevent the RBNZ from cutting rates tomorrow given that labour market data are volatile and often prone to revision. What’s more, we expect the... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Investment slump has bottomed out Investment growth collapsed to a near four-year low in Q1. While a spectacular rebound will remain elusive, investment should recover gradually over the coming quarters as election-related uncertainty... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump ramps up pressure on the Fed Despite cutting rates by 25bp this week, the Fed gave no indication that it is lining up another cut soon or that this will mark the start of the extended easing cycle investors are hoping for. But... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SEK to stay the G10 laggard; CHF causing headaches With the Swedish economy likely to flirt with recession in Q3, a dovish shift by the Riksbank is well overdue. So, having been the worst performing G10 currency against the euro this year to date, the... 2nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Forecasting a parallel universe In our latest UK Economic Outlook, “An economic multiverse” (16th July), we set out the different paths politics could send the economy down. The MPC took a different approach this week, forecasting... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Bond yields crashing to new lows Economic data this week confirmed that the Australian economy continues to underperform. Meanwhile, bond yields have been in freefall. In part, that reflects Governor Lowe’s comments last week that... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMI (July) The unexpected fall in Swiss inflation in July, and signs of a deepening downturn in the industrial sector, will only strengthen the resolve of the SNB to resist the rising franc. There is a growing... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly US tariffs, PBOC easing, property controls President Trump’s latest threat to put further tariffs on Chinese goods is unlikely to trigger the hoped-for concessions from China. With the direct hit to China’s economy still manageable, President... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal deficit target doubtful, banking code amended India’s fiscal deficit in Q1 of FY19/20 provides little assurance about the government’s ability to meet the 3.3% target that it set in the union budget last month. We think that the finance ministry... 2nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stays weak in early Q3 The manufacturing PMIs for July suggests that growth in EM industry remained soft at the start of Q3, with activity in Emerging Europe weakening sharply. The surveys also provide further evidence that... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
