Global Markets Focus How will monetary policy influence the markets? We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising rates beginning to squeeze household finances Households’ balance sheets are still in good shape, with debt burdens stabilising well below their pre-crisis levels and delinquencies low. However, the further rise in newly delinquent credit card... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising rates add to pressure on housing Home sales dropped to a five-year low in April and the surge in interest rates suggests the downward trend in sales has further to run. Although the Bank of Canada is still on the fence regarding the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the strength in jobs growth last? This week’s figures suggested that the labour market is in rude health. Admittedly, some of the timelier measures of employment growth have started to weaken. And with the labour market now... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector well placed to cope with higher rates Higher market interest rates will undoubtedly act as a drag on household spending and business investment, offsetting some of the temporary boost from fiscal stimulus. We expect that will eventually... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Who will follow Indonesia higher? The Philippines, India and Korea are all likely to follow Bank Indonesia by hiking interest rates over the next couple of months. But unlike Indonesia, these three are set to tighten policy from a... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the slowdown in exports a sign of things to come? Data released this week added to the evidence that soft global demand and the previous appreciation of the euro have taken a toll on euro-zone exports. We doubt that exports will regain all of their... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where to look for tighter credit conditions Credit conditions in Australia will surely tighten further as a result of the Royal Commission investigation into misconduct in the financial sector, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Rebound in growth to lead to higher interest rates The bout of softer-than-expected inflation and activity data which caused the MPC to step back from hiking Bank Rate in May is certainly reason for caution. But like the MPC, we think that temporary... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle takes a pause The Egyptian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, rather than cut them again, comes on the back of a pick-up in underlying price pressures as well as the recent sell-off in EM... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further hikes likely in Indonesia amid rupiah worries The performance of the rupiah will continue to determine the near-term outlook for monetary policy in Indonesia. With the currency likely to remain under downward pressure as Treasury yields in the US... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why the MPC won’t fall too far behind the Fed The Monetary Policy Committee’s latest inflation forecasts imply that UK interest rates will remain substantially below US rates for the foreseeable future. But there are reasons why the gap may not... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now While the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, its new forecasts show that it expects inflation to remain above target for the next three years. Moreover, we think that the Bank is... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: coalescing risks to trigger emergency rate hike Market sentiment towards Turkey is quickly evaporating as fears mount over the build-up of external vulnerabilities, high and rising inflation, and growing concerns that the central bank’s... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand in no hurry to hike rates The Bank of Thailand unsurprisingly decided to keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.5% against a backdrop of solid economic growth and subdued inflationary pressures. There was nothing in the... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
