ECB Watch Not quite on autopilot, but change of course unlikely Despite mixed news from the economy and growing risks to the outlook, we expect the ECB to reiterate that asset purchases are set to end in December and that interest rates will probably rise... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what will the CBRT deliver? Turkey’s central bank has all but confirmed that it will raise interest rates at next week’s MPC meeting and an increase of 350-400bp seems to be the bare minimum that will be needed to soothe... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to wait a while before hiking again The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to increase interest rates at its meeting on 13th September so soon after the last rise. In fact, given our assumption that a Brexit deal will only be... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug.) The decline in Brazilian inflation in August, to 4.2% y/y, adds to the reasons to think that Copom won’t raise interest rates at its meeting this month. Moreover, core inflation still looks quite soft... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) The improvement in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q2 should help to ease concerns about the country’s external financing needs and provide some support to the rand. Coming alongside the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to raise rates in December Despite the more dovish tone of today’s policy announcement, the Riksbank looks likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then tighten more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank likely to raise interest rates in October While the Bank of Canada left its interest rates unchanged today it appears to be heading for a hike in October, although a serious breakdown in the NAFTA negotiations could result in a last minute... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.1% y/y in August, combined with Governor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments yesterday, will add fuel to expectations for an interest rate hike. But with underlying price... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: BNM unlikely to change policy With growth easing and inflation very low, Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to leave its main policy rate on hold at 3.25% today was no surprise. While the risks are skewed towards looser policy, we... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate hikes The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% flagged that a tightening cycle will begin in the coming months. We remain comfortable with... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in August, in large part due to another fall in food inflation. But more important from the policy perspective, core inflation is likely to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ not doing the twist after all The increase in the volume of the Bank of Japan’s bond auctions merely offsets a reduction in their frequency and won’t alter the overall pace of purchases much. The bigger point is that those... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the low level of uncertainty in the euro-zone last? Uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy in the euro-zone is unusually low. While it is unlikely to return to the levels seen during the financial crisis or euro-zone debt... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Aug.) In August, Swiss inflation was unchanged at its joint-highest level in over eight years. But underlying price pressures are subdued, and we think that falling oil prices and exchange rate effects will... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is the BoJ doing the twist? Today’s shift in the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases shouldn’t be interpreted as a signal that the 10-year target will be raised anytime soon. Note added post-publication: In this Update, we suggest... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
