Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New CBI Governor unlikely to rock the boat While the imminent change in leadership at the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) is unlikely to affect its current easing bias, the new Governor will have a bigger role in shaping policy than his... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina crisis wrap, limited contagion, Banxico The Argentine peso has stabilised over the past few trading days but the collapse earlier this week has made a sovereign debt default highly likely. The good news is that contagion to the rest of the... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK different? Whereas US yield curve inversions are close to a fool-proof predictor of US recessions, a recession in the UK has only followed inversions in the gilt yield curve on 50% of occasions. That’s not... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Key takeaways from PM Modi’s media interview In a rare media interview published this week, Prime Minister Modi discussed several economic issues. Among the key takeaways, it is clear that the government wants policy to be loosened even further... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly What drove strong consumer spending in Q2? While many commentators have attributed the strength in Q2 consumer spending to purchases being brought forward ahead of the sales tax hike, we think it had more to do with the longer-than-usual... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norway reaches the end of its tightening cycle While this morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 1.25% was in line with expectations, the dovish shift in its tone suggests that the last bastion of... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to cut interest rates to -0.50% by year-end Having seen investors move in line with our previously uber-dovish view on Swedish interest rates in recent months, we now expect the Riksbank to cut the repo rate to -0.50% by the end of the year. 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the weakness in the headline rate in July increases the likelihood of another rate cut at the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: MAS to wait until October to ease An official from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today confirmed that it is not considering an unscheduled policy adjustment, but given the poor outlook for the economy loosening in October... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A primer on Argentina’s primaries, Banxico to cut Argentine markets are likely to take their cue from the outcome of Sunday’s primary elections when they open next week, but we would caution that the vote doesn’t always foreshadow the presidential... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More bad Swedish data; Norges Bank to hold rates The Norges Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged next Thursday but we expect it to leave the door open for a rate hike in September. More generally, though, the case for the Bank... 9th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru latest CB to cut rates, leaves door open for more The statement accompanying the decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates left the door open for further easing. And with the incoming growth and inflation data still weak, there is a... 9th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch One more hike by the Norges Bank; SNB to cut further Investors have moved in line with our previously uber-dovish forecasts for the SNB and the Riksbank in recent months. Meanwhile, although further tightening is in the pipeline in Norway, investors are... 8th August 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP cuts, one more likely this year Today’s 25bp cut from the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) came as no surprise, and with inflation set to fall back further and growth only likely to stage a moderate recovery over the coming... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kashmir tensions to have limited economic impact Developments in Kashmir this week have again raised tensions between the Indian and Pakistani governments. History suggests the most likely scenario from here is that, after plenty of posturing... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t worry, there’s still more “in the tin” The 50 basis point cut by the RBNZ took markets by surprise this week and we now expect the Bank to cut rates to 0.75% by early next year. If the economic outlook deteriorates by considerably more... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
