China Economics Update RRR reduction to be followed by PBOC rate cuts The PBOC will release a portion of the reserves commercial banks’ hold at the central bank. While this will pull down interbank rates in the short run, the PBOC will need to cut its policy rate to... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak consumer confidence, BoJ pre-emptive easing? The recent slump in consumer confidence underlines that consumer spending will fall sharply after October’s sales tax hike. But it doesn’t tell us much about the extent of the slowdown and the fact... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in August, due in large part to a renewed pick up in food inflation. But it will remain comfortably below the RBI’s 4.0% target. And given the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Negative rates: is the cure worse than the disease? Negative policy rates have had some positive effects in the economies where they apply and the direct adverse consequences have been small. But the policy has contributed to a fall in long-term... 5th September 2019 · 24 mins read
ECB Watch Bank to cut deposit rate but wait before starting QE2 After policymakers spelt out in July that they were planning to announce more policy stimulus soon, there is sure to be some action when they meet in Frankfurt next Thursday. We think this will... 5th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank is still well behind the curve The decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at 0.25% this morning was never really in doubt. However, its hawkish tone and cautious approach to cutting its forecasts for the repo rate... 5th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank leaves its options open The Bank of Canada has become more concerned about deteriorating global conditions and, given our view that global growth will slow further, we continue to expect the Bank to cut interest rates in... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Investors are right to price in looser policy in Sweden The fact that investors are now pricing in looser monetary policy in Sweden highlights the extent to which the Riksbank has fallen behind the curve. Anything less than a substantial dovish shift in... 4th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile CB slashes rates, leaves door open for more Yesterday’s MPC statement suggested that Chilean policymakers will follow yesterday’s 50bp cut with more easing. The latest growth and inflation data have been weak, and there is a window for further... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Interest rates still likely to fall further The RBA sounded a little more optimistic when it left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. But with external headwinds intensifying and the labour market set to weaken further, we still expect... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
Spotlight turns to the Bank After a week of mixed data, next week the Bank of Canada will take the spotlight. We expect the Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged and present a more dovish statement than in July. 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to (finally) turn more dovish next week While the Riksbank is likely to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% at its policy meeting on Thursday next week, we expect it to adopt a more dovish stance and to slash its forecasts for the economy... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the market done the ECB’s job for it? More policy loosening is on the way. But the case for the ECB to re-launch its public sector purchase programme is increasingly difficult to make given the recent rally in bonds. Meanwhile, we are... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debts: The end of the beginning? Mozambique’s government and its bondholders edged towards a restructuring deal this week. While an agreement would not solve the government’s debt problems, it would be a big step forward. Elsewhere... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI transfer raises more concerns on independence The RBI’s announcement this week that it would transfer a record dividend to the finance ministry this year has a number of important implications. On a positive note, it will help to strengthen the... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
