Europe Economics Weekly France budget needs more than temporary fixes Despite the new French government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy by 2% of GDP next year, the country’s debt dynamics appear no better than they did a few weeks ago. Moreover, the government is... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil and current account risks, RBI preview If oil prices were to spike considerably higher as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East it would expose an age-old vulnerability in India's external position. But we think the risks... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government won’t prevent further rate hikes The Q3 Tankan was strong across the board and strengthens the case for another rate hike. While the political noise coming out of Tokyo suggests that the BoJ will keep policy unchanged at its meeting... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of the drought in Brazil Drought conditions across parts of Brazil are not yet at the stage where there is a threat of major disruptions to electricity supply, but it has already prompted electricity prices to be hiked and... 3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China stimulus: your questions answered China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Sep.) The smaller-than-expected decline in Turkey’s headline rate to 49.4% y/y in September will be a disappointment to policymakers at the central bank, and supports our view that a monetary easing cycle... 3rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch New-look MPC will wait until December to cut rates Little is known about the monetary policy views of the Reserve Bank of India’s incoming MPC members, but the fact that two of the committee’s doves have been replaced suggests that the repo rate will... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global macro and markets outlook – What you need to know 1728396000 The euro-zone has stalled, the US labour market is cooling and China has only belatedly announced stimulus measures.
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we continue to think that the easing cycle won’t resume until mid-2025. Our... 2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump tariffs may not be so bad for the UK One way the US election could influence the UK economy would be if Donald Trump won and delivered on his pledge to put a 10% tariff on UK exports being sent to the US. We suspect the impact on UK... 2nd October 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will deliver a 50bp cut next Wednesday We expect the RBNZ to move its easing cycle up a gear and cut the Official Cash Rate by 50bp at its meeting next week. What’s more, given the Bank’s tendency to loosen policy aggressively, we think... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs signal marked slowdown in global industry In addition to indicating that goods price pressures eased in September, the latest batch of manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry slowed sharply towards the end of Q3. But with interest... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 24) The pivot toward stimulus reduces near-term risks and should provide some much-needed support to an economy struggling with a softening labour market and a deep property downturn. But a rebound in... 1st October 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 25bp at next four meetings We now expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25bp at each of its next four meetings, taking the deposit rate down from 3.5% currently to 2.5% in March. 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
