Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone inflation risks now to the downside The ECB’s battle against high inflation has been won and, in our view, it is more likely that inflation undershoots than overshoots the 2% target over the next few years. As a result, we think the ECB... 22nd September 2025 · 11 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK Outlook – More tax rises to add to economy’s woes 1st October 2025, 3:00PM BST Our latest UK Economic Outlook explains how the Chancellor’s likely tax hikes in November’s Budget risk adding to the existing drags on economic growth and the labour market, resulting in the Bank
Global Economics Update Inside the latest central bank decisions We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to unpack the September meetings of major advanced economy central banks. (Recording available here.) The key takeaway was that in the US, markets seem to... 22nd September 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa pauses easing cycle, Angola starts its The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged looks like a pause rather than a halt in the monetary easing cycle. We expect inflation expectations to trend lower from here... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC keeps options open, likely to cut again this year Bank of Canada officials signalled back in July they would support further interest rate cuts if labour market conditions continued to worsen, and this week they delivered, lowering the policy rate by... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed returns to Greenspan's risk management doctrine For long-time Fed watchers, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference this week was a return to the glory days of Alan Greenspan during the 1990s and 2000s, when “the Maestro” first adopted a risk... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s revised fiscal rule, Czech rates, new forecasts Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov announced this week that the government will tighten its budget rule, setting the stage for what is likely to be broad fiscal tightening in the much... 19th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor’s tricky fiscal situation just got trickier The combination of a likely downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility's productivity growth forecast in the Budget on 26th November and the further rise in borrowing costs this week adds to... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak start to Q3; ECB unlikely to change QT for now This week’s data show that the euro-zone economy continued to expand only slowly at the start of Q3. We forecast growth to pick up a bit in the coming quarters but not as much as the consensus expects... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to overshoot BoJ’s forecasts Given that Governor Ueda is still sounding very non-committal about the timing of the next rate hike, the two hawkish dissents at this week’s BoJ meeting could well prove to be a red herring. But with... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan inching towards tighter policy While the two dissents by BoJ Board members could be a red herring, we’re sticking to our long-held view that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle next month and lift rates to 1.5% by 2027. Note... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ will cut further to revive the ailing economy With New Zealand’s real GDP having plunged last quarter, the output gap is now at its most negative level since the Global Financial Crisis. The excess capacity in the economy will exert downward... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The Bank of Japan will probably look past the ongoing fall in headline inflation, given that underlying inflation is holding up reasonably well. Accordingly, we still think there’s a case for the Bank... 19th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Big policy tests for China, India and Indonesia 25th September 2025, 9:00AM BST Asia ex-Japan’s three biggest economies are each grappling with major policy tests.
