RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut further…just not yet Following the dramatic 50 basis point cut in August, we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday 25 th September. However, the economy is clearly on... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August and we think a slowing in employment growth should drive the unemployment rate even higher, to 5.4% by the end of the year. 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed split deepens The Fed voted to cut its key policy interest rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 1.75% and 2.00%, but the FOMC is more split than ever over what to do next. 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation remained below the target midpoint in August, which we think will allow policymakers to cut their key rate from 6.50% to 6.25% at their meeting tomorrow. 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Interest rate cutting cycle has further to run Weak economic growth and low inflation mean Emerging Asia’s rate cutting cycle has further to run. In contrast, the consensus and financial markets think the easing cycle will soon end in many... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011 Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the... 17th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising unemployment heaps pressure on the Riksbank The sharp rise in Swedish unemployment in August serves as further evidence that the Riksbank is unlikely to be able to tighten policy later this year, as it forecasts. 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles Turkey’s central bank looks set to cut interest rates further over the coming months, but past experience suggests that the easing cycle will be short and that renewed lira weakness will eventually... 17th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the continued weakness in the headline rate in August increases the likelihood of another rate... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to cut despite rising inflation and trade optimism The Fed is almost certain to cut its policy rate by another 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. But rising core inflation, the still-solid incoming activity data and the... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the ECB really to blame for euro weakness in 2019? Despite what Mr Trump’s tweet yesterday appears to suggest, we don’t think that the ECB is “trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro”. And although we expect the euro to weaken further against... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: surprise cut, but further easing unlikely Vietnam’s decision to cut interest rates today is something of a surprise given that growth appears to be holding up well at the moment. Given the decent outlook for the economy, we don’t think the... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus still likely to boost spending The RBA’s interest rate cuts and the additional tax refunds the government announced in May have yet to boost business and consumer confidence. But lower interest and tax payments will free up around... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Is it time to do the twist again? 10-year government bond yields have rebounded this week but are still at the lower end of the BoJ’s tolerance band. Some commentators have suggested that the Bank will cut the short-term policy rate... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update DNB mirrors the ECB as the SNB watches on Having mirrored the ECB’s 10bp interest rate cut this afternoon, we now expect the Danish Nationalbank to reduce its Certificates of Deposit rate again by the end of the year. Meanwhile, although the... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Open-ended QE unlikely to reboot economy With today’s policy decision, Mario Draghi appears to have locked the ECB into QE for several years beyond his time in office. While the move was initially welcomed by financial markets, we doubt that... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
