Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.) Wage growth improved a little in June and household incomes are rebounding now that most furloughed workers are back in work. Meanwhile, the surge “core” household spending in June supports our view... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC’s words are much more dovish than its numbers The Monetary Policy Committee left its interest rate and quantitative easing policies unchanged today and its new projections appear to suggest that no further loosening is required. But its dovish... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, but more easing to come The only new step taken by the RBI today was the introduction of a new framework to help struggling borrowers manage their bank debt. The MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: low rates here to stay The 25bp cut in the Selic rate, to 2.00%, at last night’s Brazilian central bank meeting probably marks the last reduction in the cycle, but the accompanying statement supports our view that rates... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% despite the very poor outlook for the economy suggests further rate cuts are unlikely. In its statement, the BoT hinted... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ may still cut rates into negative territory The RBNZ has stabilised the pace of asset purchases in recent months and is on track to meet its QE targets. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 12th August... 5th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will have to expand asset purchases in earnest The RBA turned more pessimistic about the outlook for the economy when it kept policy settings unchanged today and we think it will engage in additional asset purchases before long. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2) Retail sales and external trade both rose in the month of June but may weaken again before long as imports begin to normalise and the renewed lockdown in Victoria weighs on retail sales. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch MPC may hint more support will be needed We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to vote unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at +0.10% on Thursday 6th August and to continue with, but not extend, quantitative easing (QE). But... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The surge in retail sales in June suggests that consumer spending will rebound across Q3 even if some restrictions on activity are reimposed to curb the renewed spread of the virus. 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Plunge in inflation to eventually trigger more easing The renewed lockdown in Melbourne is set to undermine the recovery and will push inflation much further below the 2% target than the Reserve Bank of Australia is currently anticipating. We still think... 29th July 2020 · 7 mins read
RBI Watch Tepid recovery to prompt further easing The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been emphatic in its response to the coronavirus crisis but, given the severity of the economic downturn and signs that the post-lockdown recovery is stalling... 28th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (June) Policy measures from governments and the ECB to keep banks lending during lockdowns appear to have been successful, but as we have argued was likely to happen, loan growth is now slowing. Consumers’... 27th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia opts for small rate cut, cautious easing ahead Russia’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, today and continued to provide signals that further easing lies in store. But the communications suggest that the pace of easing will slow... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautious, but still scope for further easing Divisions on South Africa’s MPC suggest that some policymakers are keen for the easing cycle to be brought to an end following today’s 25bp cut (to 3.50%). And that seems to be the view priced into... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
