India Economics Update New MPC will have more work to do The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show that the MPC – of which three members are now due to step down – has turned notably more hawkish on the inflation outlook. But there are... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery Following a huge drop in Q2, GDP is set to rebound sharply this quarter. The second virus wave already shows signs of slowing again and we think it merely brought the recovery in domestic demand to a... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: bar for policy rate hikes is very high Turkey’s central bank kept its key policy interest rates on hold today and, while the accompanying statement acknowledged growing upside risks to inflation, it looks like that the focus will remain on... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more rate cuts coming after “prudent pause” The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.25% today, but with the pandemic weighing heavily on the economy, we doubt the Bank has finished easing. 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank set for a prolonged period at zero This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key interest rates on hold at zero was never really in doubt. We still think it more likely than not that the Bank will leave rates on hold... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update More cuts coming in Sri Lanka The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left both its deposit and lending rates on hold at 4.50% and 5.50% respectively at its meeting today, but given the poor outlook for the economy and mounting... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Little appetite for further LPR declines Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. Given signs that the focus of monetary policy has shifted to containing financial risks on the back of the relatively rapid economic... 20th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to resume easing soon Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.0% suggests that it is waiting to see if the recent stabilisation in the rupiah holds. Provided it does, we think further easing... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE still reluctant to cut rates, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers remained cautious about delivering more monetary stimulus. That said, with the... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery Firms are adding to their fleets of trucks at the fastest pace in a decade, suggesting that they expect growth in industry to accelerate well above trend in the next few quarters. One near-term prop... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to maintain the status quo The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday (20th August), and we expect it to reiterate that it is in no rush to tighten policy. 13th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB under pressure Growing pressure on South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) to do more to support the economy and finance the government is unlikely to result in a major shift in policymaking over the next year or two... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ is not done loosening yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) further expanded its quantitative easing programme at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the falling lira? If strains in Turkey’s balance of payments fail to ease, the central bank will probably tighten monetary conditions more aggressively within the interest rate “corridor”. But use of the corridor alone... 10th August 2020 · 3 mins read
