Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: revisiting lessons from the GFC The experience of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) chimes with our EM rates view on two counts. The first is that easing cycles in many EMs are now at an end (Brazil) or will draw to... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Rate cuts still a remote scenario The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming meeting. And while the frontrunner to be the country’s next prime minister has indicated that he sees scope for further stimulus... 9th September 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update What next for government borrowing costs? The use of traditional monetary policy tools alongside financial repression will keep government borrowing costs in India in check over the coming years. That should help to ensure that only modest... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) & GDP (Q2 Revised) Wage growth improved in July and household incomes are likely to rebound further as more workers who lost their jobs during the state of emergency find employment again. Meanwhile, the second estimate... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A PMI puzzle, Brazil’s GDP oddities & budget A string of eye-catching economic data releases this week has fuelled yet more optimism about the strength of Brazil’s recovery. But digging into the details suggests that there may be less to some of... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Slow recovery in the Philippines, Taiwan-US FTA A long and strict lockdown meant the Philippines suffered one of the biggest falls in GDP in the region in the second quarter. The most recent data suggest that it is also experiencing one of the... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Withdrawal of policy support a headwind to activity With a record plunge in output, Australia entered its first recession in 29 years last quarter. Huge public support payments resulted in an increase in both corporate profits and household income and... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales were 12% above pre-virus levels in July but the closure of non-essential shops in Victoria will weigh heavily on spending in August. That means that sales won’t rise all that much in Q3... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Growth slowdown, virus rebound to keep ECB dovish The ECB will not make any major policy changes at next week’s Governing Council meeting, but President Lagarde will emphasise that policymakers expect to use the current €1.35trn PEPP envelope in full... 3rd September 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the Bank of England change its remit? While the Bank of England might not follow the Fed and change its inflation remit, we doubt this will stop it from significantly loosening policy and from keeping it loose for a very long time. 3rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Aug.) The rise in the August PMIs pales in comparison with the falls during the lockdown and it is highly likely that output is still a very long way from pre-pandemic levels. Given the bleak economic... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Bank Indonesia’s independence under threat? Proposed changes to Bank Indonesia’s mandate, which include a shift to focus more on growth and unemployment, could lead to major changes in how the central bank operates. However, given the country’s... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation close to peaking Ongoing virus-related supply disruptions as well as one-off factors such as phone tariff hikes have kept inflation higher than we had anticipated over recent months. But with food inflation set to... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB follow the Fed’s lead? The Fed’s switch to an average inflation targeting regime and revised interpretation of its full employment goal are a response to challenges which are common to many economies, including the euro... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tourism and tighter policy to hinder recovery The 11% q/q drop in GDP in Turkey in Q2 was smaller than we had expected and we now forecast the economy to slump by 3% this year (previously 5.8%). But the recovery over the coming quarters will be... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may still attempt to lower long-term yields The RBA today expanded its Term Funding Facility which should contribute to continued strong growth in the money supply. And while it didn’t indicate that additional stimulus is forthcoming, we still... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
