Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bides its time, but leaves rate cut on the table The Riksbank’s decision to leave the repo rate on hold at zero this morning was never in doubt, but it left the option of a rate cut firmly on the table, linking it explicitly to moves in inflation... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: end of the easing cycle Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) left interest rate unchanged today at 7.0% and appeared to signal the end of its recent easing cycle. With the economy recovering well from the coronavirus crisis and... 21st September 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold with hikes likely next year Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. With the economy now largely back to its pre-virus path and the PBOC appearing reluctant to keep monetary policy loose for longer than... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish lira, Russia’s vaccine, virus cases in Hungary The pressure on the Turkish lira this week as the risk of EU sanctions continued to rise has prompted a further tightening of monetary conditions, but an outright hike to policy rates at next week’s... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s expanded IMF deal, SA lockdown easing The formal expansion of Angola’s IMF programme this week will go some way towards easing the country’s balance of payments pressures, but further debt restructuring (including private creditors) is... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s cepo, Brazil’s fiscal saga continues The tightening of capital controls (“ el cepo”) in Argentina will give the central bank some breathing room as it attempts to manage the peso over the coming months. But Argentina’s experience using... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates on hold in Russia, but easing cycle is not over The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% today is likely to mark a pause rather than an end to its easing cycle. The central bank will maintain its cautious... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown risks rise, low inflation here to stay The escalation of virus cases in parts of France and Spain, with officials worrying about the strain on hospitals, means that we would not be surprised to see strict regional lockdowns imposed in the... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror The economic data out of China this week beat expectations and point to a further rebound. The strength is still concentrated in industry and construction but that’s not a constraint on near-term... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vehicle sales strength, rupee weakness The jump in passenger vehicle sales in August contrasts with other indicators showing that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stuttering. We suspect this is mostly a reflection of consumers making... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) While headline inflation fell in August, excluding the government’s domestic travel subsidy scheme it showed a renewed pick up. However, we still think inflation will fall much further into negative... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risk of inflation lower in the euro-zone than elsewhere If it is sustained for long enough, the policy stimulus being implemented in the euro-zone could eventually cause inflation to take off. However, we think it is more likely that policy is normalised... 17th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB easing cycle probably over, rates to stay low Today’s decision by South African Reserve Bank’s to keep its benchmark rate unchanged probably means that further easing is unlikely to materialise. Even so, monetary conditions are likely to remain... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan policy rate set for an extended hold With the economy holding up relatively well, the decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates on hold came as no surprise. Further rate cuts are unlikely, and we expect interest... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Selic rate to stay low for longer than most expect The dovish tone of the Brazilian central bank’s statement from yesterday’s meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 2.00%) supports our view that the policy rate will remain at its current... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will keep policy unchanged The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep policy settings unchanged today didn’t come as a surprise and we don’t expect incoming PM Suga to push the Bank into policy rate cuts. 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
