Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia in no rush to tighten, Vietnam rate cut Indonesia has signalled that fiscal policy will remain supportive of the economic recovery after it unveiled a budget for next year that envisages only a very small fall in the budget deficit... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Our thoughts on the MPC shambles The last-minute postponement of the RBI's policy meeting scheduled for this week is because of the failure to find replacements for the three external MPC members whose terms ended after the last... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending boon, property developer caution Holiday spending during China’s ongoing “Golden Week” should ease concerns that lacklustre consumption will cause the economic recovery to stall. The property sector remains, in our view, a bigger... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more rate cuts after “continued pause” The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.25% today for a second consecutive meeting, but with the economic recovery proving to be one of the slowest in the... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Light at the end of the tunnel? The latest figures suggest that the number of COVID-19 infections in the region has passed its peak – new cases are down by 35-60% compared to their July/August peaks in most of the large Latin... 30th September 2020 · 14 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The slight fall in South African inflation, to 3.1% y/y in August, is likely to be followed by subdued inflation rates over the next few months. Even so, the SARB’s easing cycle has now come to an end... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) Retail sales rebounded back to pre-virus levels in August as the second wave began to dissipate, and we expect consumer spending to recover further over the coming months. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Encouraging signs in Korea Korea looks to have contained its “second wave” of the virus with minimum cost to the economy. There were just 38 newly confirmed cases in Korea today, which was the lowest since early August and down... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth concerns mounting in Nigeria Nigeria is facing an uphill battle to breathe life into its economic recovery. Following a sharp 6.1% y/y fall in GDP in Q2, more recent figures suggest that activity remains muted. Admittedly, Google... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
RBA Watch Australia - RBA to cut rates and launch more QE The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more downbeat about the prospects for inflation and wage growth. While it could wait until November, we think it will announce further interest rate cuts and... 29th September 2020 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers refocus on property developer debt The speed at which officials in China have pivoted from crisis response to another round of restrictions on property developers has caught many by surprise. Developers might have hoped that they would... 28th September 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Hungary and Turkey, Poland’s ‘fur crisis’ Concerns about currency falls and the inflation outlook prompted central banks in Hungary and Turkey to raise interest rates this week but while we think this will ultimately be reversed in Hungary... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: weak recovery, new currency forecasts Inadequate fiscal support is holding back growth in the Philippines and, unless this improves, the recovery will continue to underwhelm. Meanwhile, despite the recent sell-off in EM currency markets... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
